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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (25606)	12/17/2000 5:02:33 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

yes, autumn73 thru 1975 a tough 30% bear I see no comparison to that period 1981-82 was another tough bear my main point is that now we have almost nothing in common with past secular bears... 1974 had adjustment for our entire economy with quadrupled energy costs... 1980 had what I regard to be a 5-yr delayed reaction to Volker's radical expansion in money supply consequent to the entire OPEC phenomenon therefore, I see no secular recession now... the mental geriatrics who control the Federal Reserve Politburo regard Y2K expansion as an internal threat to our price stability... I believe they do so with great error technically a recession is defined and marked by back-to-back negative GDP quarters... aint gonna happen... but an earnings recession might be marked by bak2bak declines in sequential earnings Rivlin thinks we slow to 2% GDP for Q1 and Q2, with no threat of recession she might be right, but I doubt it I say Q4 comes in at 1.6% and Q1 at 0.8% take a guess, LimmerMan, on Q4 and Q1 appreciated, jim p.s. nice to talk to someone not suffering from pathological bullishness do you harbor pathological bearishness? I am told you have been afflicted since 1997