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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito who wrote (87094)	12/17/2000 3:22:28 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Allen, >> real economic expansion It is my opinion that the last 10 years has been a credit expansion and not a "real economic expansion". I believe history has shown that credit expansions like the one we have observed will end badly for those that paid high prices for their assets. The debt has to be paid, either by the debtor, the institution that made the loan, or the tax payer. IMO, it will not go away without some pain. Joan

To: Cogito who wrote (87094)	12/17/2000 6:01:07 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

allen, clinton is in place to provide LEADERSHIP. he represents LEADERSHIP. i'm not saying that clinton "pulled the trigger," so to speak, however, i am saying that his "leadership" led to this result. bill clinton taught america a few lessons: 1. tell people what they want to hear and do whatever you want. "my administration will be the most ethical ever," etc... 2. self interest is the only real interest (few have monetized public service better than bill and company). 3. manipulate whatever you want to get what you pleases your self interest over the SHORT TERM. IF bill clinton had represented TRUTH and INTEGRITY through his leadership, i believe the fed would have had opposition to 1. finagling productivity numbers through hedonic pricing. 2. increasing money supply near double digit rates. 3. making debt so cheap as to EXPLODE debt. so, no, bill clinton didn't pull the trigger. however, his lack of a value system leadership led to the powers that be pulling the trigger with IMPUNITY AND AGAINST NO OPPOSITION. you had al gore and bush both lying about a budget surplus in 1998 (i think that was the date). we only recently have had a surplus as i understand, not when they were claiming. back to the shell game. count this loss there and we'll pretend it doesn't exist! btw, many dot com and other companies are allowed to lie, for all practical purposes, on their financial statements with impunity! why? the govt won't go after them b/c they DON'T CARE ABOUT TRUTH. would i be surprised if bill had a say in lowering interest rate 15 minutes before options expirations? nope, though he probably didn't. however, the threat of an ethical president investigating market manipulation by the fed might cause a few folks to chose the straight and narrow vs the short term gain / screw everyone in the future game being played out on the nat'l scene today. allen, the economic expansion is absurdly over exaggerated. if you've been following this thread then you know that gdp growth has been beat down so badly it is no longer an economic measure (though nobody has made an official effort to get the word out). economic growth isn't bad, but it is within historical ranges and shouldn't be termed "great." if people weren't misled into thinking this economy was "new" and they were not lied to by GOVERMENT AGENCIES, then i wouldn't have a beef. this boon came at a terrible price, allen. a terrible price. just b/c we haven't felt it yet, doesn't mean it is coming. clinton pushed america out of an economic airplane. the views are tremendous and the exhileration is profound. problem is, he didn't give us a parachute and we WILL hit the ground - as sure as the sun rises tomorrow. i don't support piss poor economic policy and so i can't defend reagan's failed policy. is clinton better than reagan? is dying by electric chair better than dying by hanging (hint, you're still dead!). allen, i'm no supporter of bush. he has the thinnest resume of just about any governor around. heck, at least jesse ventura worked for a living! yes, lying and manipulating is the WAY and the PATH. clinton PROVED this. there is no SHAME now. this is why he makes me sick as a human being. not b/c he is outwardly bad. he comes off incredibly sincere. however, he is a master manipulator and incredibly selfish. watch actions, not words. i do and the guy is emotionally ill. very smart. very intelligent. very selfish and very manipulative. jmho.

To: Cogito who wrote (87094)	12/19/2000 10:41:18 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Allen, I would like to point out some significant factors with a potential political connection fueling this bubble. This is not an attempt to be all inclusive. The government economic statistics have never been more misleading. The implementation of hedonic pricing in 1996 has vastly overstated GDP growth and productivity growth. Earlie has noted there have been 32 changes to the CPI computation all of which serve to understate the true measure of product price inflation. One example is geometric weighting - which assumes consumers substitute lower priced goods for higher priced goods- sounds reasonable except for housing and fuel but i suppose one can beat rising prices by moving in with their in-laws and using their cars. Another item is adjusting for quality and safety improvements - no doubt modern cars are better and safer but they also cost more but the government tells us that car prices increases due to quality improvements are not inflation. Rising home prices are not properly reflected in the inflation stats as well. There is so much more but you get the idea. Next the moral hazard created by bailing out speculators and investment bankers. When Mexico collapsed congress said no to bailouts but Bob Rubin used the Exchange Stabilization Fund ( ESF) to bail out Mexico which was a major benefit Goldman Sachs et. al. one of largest holders of Mexican bonds. The ESF is not accountable to anyone but the treasury secretary and the President. there is a lawsuit pending which alleges that ESF and others have conspired to fix the price of gold - part of Rubin's strong dollar policy ? The gold carry trade has also served to boost the US dollar and treasury bonds. LTCM bailout a rate cut just before options expiration at the expense of shorts. Next topic in my opinion the quality of earnings is the poorest in history due to aggressive and misleading accounting practices which the government has been reluctant to curtail Why? perhaps they enjoy the capital gains tax receipts from the ponzi scheme which have gone a long way to reduce the budget deficit. The most outrageous is the accounting for employee stock options. some others are the recurring non recurring write offs, capitalization of expenses, pooling in interest vs. purchase method of accounting, revenue swaps at i-nut companies. Financial engineering like debt funded share repurchases and the" beating the estimates game" . The SEC has been asleep while all this and much more has transpired. Next item the increased role of asset and mortgaged back securities which has allowed unprecedented credit creation outside the banking system and thus the control of the Fed. The non bank sector has unbelievable leverage and it an accident waiting to happen -watch out money market funds! I will be happen to provide you with references for further reading on the aforementioned issues . there is so much more to cover but this is a start. Mike

To: Cogito who wrote (87094)	12/19/2000 10:55:02 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

allen, one point I would like to add is that by understating product price inflation you overstate GDP growth and productivity because of the deflator applied to nominal GDP growth to get real GDP growth. In addition, understating inflation is a way to reduce entitlements COLAs including Social security - didn't Clinton warn us that the republicans wanted to cut social security ? His administration has in effect cut SS in two ways - one understating price inflation which results in smaller COLAs and two he taxed the SS benefit so after taxes your SS benefits have been cut. where is the outrage from the left wing skunks in the liberal press with their stories of seniors eating dog food because their entitlements have been CUT. Read my lips understating inflation and taxing SS CUTS BENEFITS. mike