>>>There are arguably several well-known and fairly well-developed and -applied areas of R&D (from fuel cells to biotech to bluetooth or some evolved form of it, just to name three) that have the potential to "change the landscape of this world," <<<
I agree that there are new technologies on the horizon, but I'm not sure what the impact will be. I find it hard to believe the impact will change the way we conduct business as a whole. Recall where all this market wealth was created from, the "Four Horseman"! Why? Because of one thing. The PC. The PC created a technology boom like no other, because it single handedly changed the way we communicate, and the way business is conducted today. Also, a stong case can be made for the cell phone too.
Take a look at just what the PC created in terms of other technologies, from PC's to chips, to servers, to mother boards, to displays, to ethernet cards, to internet service providers, to networking applications, to routers, to switches, to cable modems, to scanners, to printers, to operating software, to web-hosting applications, the list goes on, and on, and on. Just like the days of the TV revolution, it changed the way we communicated, and thus there was a technology boom because everyone had to have one. But, virtually after every household had one, we ran into the stagnant years of the early 70's. Higher energy prices and Vietnam didn't help either. This puts us right on course regarding the PC, and the cell phone. The PC is as much a household commodity as the TV, and nearly everyone has a cell-phone. Prices are getting cheaper and cheaper, as supply outstrips demand. No longer does the average consumer need to run to Best Buy or Circuit City to buy a faster computer, because they are simply adequate enough as it is. Unfortunately, the river has runneth over, and it will take time to soak up the excess water, because the grounds are already saturated as it is.
We are entering into a major consolidation phase in production alone, let alone the markets. In order to increase production, demand for production will have to increase. The only possible way to increase demand for goods and services is to provide an item that everyone would like to have, that nobody currently has or to make current goods cheap enough to outstrip supply. And right now that supply is overwelming. Inventories are building up at an alarming rate, and the only way to correct this problem is to scale back operations, because it's becoming harder for corporations to increase profits when it cost them more to borrow money, and the demand for their goods are being outstripped by supply.
My point here is, the longer AG waits, the worse it's going to get. We are just now starting to see the effects from his changes, and unless he acts quickly here, the pain will be deeper and greater, because there is nothing new on the horizon that will EVER create such an impact on the economy as the PC. The automobile changed the way we conducted business, and so did the PC and cell phone. In order to make a monumental impact in the economy as a whole, efficiency has to be changed in a way that would create jobs similar to what the cell phone and PC did. I don't see anything on the horizon that will even come close to doing that for a VERY long time. As it stands right now, lowering rates IMO will only cause a hard landing. The more he waits the harder, and longer it's going to be, before we finally reach equilibrium with regards to supply and demand.
KM |
