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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (64485)	12/17/2000 4:28:59 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Gary, I am hardly a bull. Nor, do I think that a 25 basis point move will have any lasting effect on the stock market. Greenspan has basked in the glory of being the architect of a very marvelous economy. He would be taking a far more dangerous step to wait until January to unwind the mess that is spinning out of control. Re the market: I subscribe to the theory that these markets are being manipulated. As a result I pay more attention to the manipulation than to tech analysis, since the market no longer seems to have a momentum of its own. If I'm right then perhaps we should be looking for a decline on Monday...The sell off might be for the purpose of margin liquidation/capitulation. This, in turn, may create a great buying opportunity. Sure a 25 basis point drop would be cause for a nice rally but I don't see the NAZ approaching 5000 any time soon.

To: Gary Burton who wrote (64485)	12/17/2000 8:55:34 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Gary, what are your thoughts over the very short term (next couple days?)....you mentioned the TRIN and put/calls not getting near fear levels since October '98, but I thought Dick Arms "Arms Index Guy" was on TV Friday saying the TRIN was showing oversold, and called for a bounce now (similar to what happened end of October, and the last time we hit 2500+ 2 weeks ago)- at both points he also came out and said the TRIN showed "oversold"....also, put/call at .94 as of close Friday...that's pretty high, no? (near 1)..and should signal a short-term rebound perhaps??