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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (14639)	12/18/2000 11:29:41 AM
From: Anthony@Pacific	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18998

SEVU PART 1 ,IS NOW RELEASED !!! insidetruth.com Please checkout the pictures our secret Operatives took

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (14639)	12/18/2000 12:18:38 PM
From: Mr_X	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18998

Mr. P@#K, What do I do with CUBE here? Add? Punt? Am confused. News seems to be bleak. Help!! Mr. X

To: Mr. Pink who wrote (14639)	12/22/2000 10:07:31 AM
From: StockDung	Respond to of 18998

Buy on Bad News , Forbes Magazine, 01.08.01 Chase (nyse: CMB) and its pending merger partner, J.P. Morgan (nyse: JPM), issued a joint warning Dec. 14 that their fourth-quarter earnings will fall short of forecasts. That nicked another $2 off Chase's stock, which has lost a quarter of its value since September. But Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst David Berry finds the Chase downdraft unwarranted because slumping investment activity, mainly less trading volume in a bad market, is to blame for the profit hit, not loan quality. Berry thinks Chase-Morgan's investments will rebound. The Chase-Morgan loan portfolio has a very low level of dud loans for a big bank: 0.9%—versus 1.5% for industry kingpin Citigroup and 1.1% for currently second-ranked Bank of America. Most other major banks saw bad-loan levels rise in 2000, but Chase's was flat and likely to rise less than the rest in 2001. And any Federal Reserve easing would help lenders generally. It's hard to make a killing on an arb play near the merger date (Dec. 29, 2000). Each $164.38 Morgan share will become 3.7 Chase shares, for an effective value of $44.43 per Chase share. That's lower than Chase's recent $44.62 price, so before the merger buy Morgan. —Josephine Lee DSL Hell Globespan developes microchip sets that go into gear for direct subscriber lines, one variety of high-speed Internet ramp. The phone companies have suffered a bit of disappointment with DSL, and they are taking it out on their suppliers with pressure for price cuts. GlobeSpan (nasdaq: GSPN) has other problems, says Stephen Worthington, analyst at Barbary Coast Capital Management. Ex-parent Lucent Technologies, under its divestiture agreement, can use GlobeSpan technology in competing DSL chips. Also, Intel invested in GlobeSpan under an agreement to use GlobeSpan technology, then acquired rival chipmaker Level One, making GlobeSpan's patent protection even less compelling. For the nine months through September, GlobeSpan lost $119 million, compared with $9 million for all of 1999. At a recent $35, shares are down 75% from their March high. But even at that price they make the company's enterprise value (debt plus market value of common) $2.6 billion, 11 times trailing-12-month sales. Short them and cover at $10. —Christopher Helman Rent This Once-disdained shares of Hertz have nosed up since Streetwalker recommended the leading car rental agency (FORBES, Sept. 18, 2000). Even more undervalued is smaller player Dollar Thrifty, says Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Henry A. Diamond. Dollar Thrifty Automotive Group (nyse: DTG), owner of Dollar Rent A Car and Thrifty Car Rental, trades at $17, or 5 times trailing earnings-half Hertz's and Avis' P/Es. That's despite Dollar's strong 37% earnings growth for 2000 through Sept. 30 and the highest operating margin (13%) among big car rental firms; Hertz's is 12%. Hurting Dollar's stock is the possibility that a slowing economy will cause it to miss fourth-quarter estimates by a few cents. But Diamond expects bargain-conscious renters to keep using this discounter even if the economy weakens further. —Brendan Coffey The Key Part Amid Wall Street's tech travails one undeserving victim is AVX, a 70%-owned subsidiary of Kyocera that makes "passive" electronic components like capacitors and resistors. These doodads regulate electricity for products ranging from cell phones to cars to the international space station. It helps that AVX's customer base is quite diversified. AVX (nyse: AVX) is a growth story: Earnings expanded sixfold to $276 million and revenues 81% to $1.3 billion in its fiscal first half, ended Sept. 30. Theshares hit a high of $50 in May, but then slid to $19 on news of slowing growth at big customers Motorola and Nokia. Martin Whitman, manager of the Third Avenue Value Fund, says these shares are cheap at eight times trailing earnings. AVX's long-term outlook, Whitman says, is excellent. —C.H. Well-Rigged Maverick Tubetrades like a steel- maker; at $17 it's down 30% this year. What investors don't yet grasp is that Maverick's (nyse: MVK) steel tubes are mainly for oil drilling, says MarshallAdkins, Raymond James' energy research director. During the 1990s, when oil prices were low, Maverick suffered lackluster to negative earnings. For the first nine months of 2000 it lost $3.5 million on revenue of $284 million. But that's the result of its bulking up to meet the explosion of rig demand, including a charge for its purchase of Canada's Prudential Steel. Sales for the three quarters were 30% above 1999's level. Adkins somewhat optimistically expects a good fourth quarter and earnings per share of $1.85 next year. Maverick is trading at just seven times that figure. —Michael Maiello forbes.com zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz