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To: swimmygoof who wrote (112886)	12/17/2000 11:12:29 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

At $25/item, revenues should come in around $1.15 billion, plus or minus .05B. Losses will likely be contained (on a pro forma basis of course) to $70 million or less (0.20/share). Take out the France and Japan operations, and it will be a near breakeven quarter I do not agree even closely to a break even quarter excluding Japan and France. That is not even an issue though. Much of the increased revenue is coming from France and Japan but you want to exclude the expenses? I have a problem with that type of accounting in that it does not work. Where did you get the 5% number for Toys R Us? The terms were not disclosed so I am curious as to how you arrived at that.

To: swimmygoof who wrote (112886)	12/17/2000 11:12:29 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

At $25/item, revenues should come in around $1.15 billion, plus or minus .05B. Losses will likely be contained (on a pro forma basis of course) to $70 million or less (0.20/share). Take out the France and Japan operations, and it will be a near breakeven quarter I do not agree even closely to a break even quarter excluding Japan and France. That is not even an issue though. Much of the increased revenue is coming from France and Japan but you want to exclude the expenses? I have a problem with that type of accounting in that it does not work. Where did you get the 5% number for Toys R Us? The terms were not disclosed so I am curious as to how you arrived at that.

To: swimmygoof who wrote (112886)	12/18/2000 12:34:35 AM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

At $25/item, revenues should come in around $1.15 billion, plus or minus .05B. Losses will likely be contained (on a pro forma basis of course) to $70 million or less (0.20/share). Take out the France and Japan operations, and it will be a near breakeven quarter. I just don't see how Amazon can make $25/item on the average when it is including in the count all the Toys R Us items, for which only gets $2 to $6 bucks revenue... Last year's average price per item for Xmas was $18.60, if I remember correctly.... Toys R Us orders have a negative effect on the average price of about four dollars lower than what it would have otherwise been... Therefore assume electronics takes the average price to $25 (a generous assumption as most people give CDs as a gift, not TVs) and then substract four dollars and you get an average price of $21 for total revenues well below the $1.15 billion you forecast.... Don't forget that the ToysRUs deal will contribute handsomely to the bottom line, since AMZN is getting 5% profit on anything sold in that category, plus miscellaneous fixed fees. This wouldn't amount to much $15 million at most... This would be a drop in the bucket compared to actual losses last quarter (as opposed to fudged-over losses reported).

To: swimmygoof who wrote (112886)	12/18/2000 1:04:19 AM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 164684

so it appears we're heading for 33-34 million items by the 21st, and approximately 45 million for the quarter. Sales are dropping to levels well below late november. Apparently people are too concerned about shipping deadlines. At this time Amazon would have to double todays sales for the next three days even to reach 33 million... unlikely, very unlikely... My estimate original estimate for items shipped was anywhere between 30 to 36 million items by Dec 21st. 36 million items is no longer feasible. Any value in the 30-35 million range is still within the realm of the possible, however the likeliest outcome is somewhere between 31-33 million items shipped.

To: swimmygoof who wrote (112886)	12/18/2000 12:12:59 PM
From: Alomex	Respond to of 164684

Losses will likely be contained (on a pro forma basis of course) to $70 million or less (0.20/share). Take out the France and Japan operations, and it will be a near breakeven quarter But the Web superstore, which has racked up $866 million in losses for the first nine months of this year, expects to post a fourth-quarter loss of 26 cents a share, thestreet.com