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Politics : Electoral College 2000 - Ahead of the Curve -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: margie who wrote (6434)	12/18/2000 3:18:58 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6710

Hi margie, If you've relented on your decision to put me on "ignore", I'd say that I'm in agreement with you for about 90% of what you've written. I'd love to see a gas pipeline come down from Prudoe to Chicago, as was proposed since the mid-70's. I'd love to see more exploration and development in the Overthrust Belt and other western regions. I'd love to see California relent on its moratoria on oil and gas exploration and development. I'd love to see the folly of the environmentalist movement exposed with a rational discussion of the place of nuclear power in the effort toward national self sufficiency in energy. I'm certainly open to the exciting new developments in coal fired technologies that promise to cut the NO2, sulphuric acid and other troublesome emissions that keep that industry from greater success. Re: Incredible how liberals won't acknowledge the effect of Clinton-Gore policies on this energy crisis. I fully acknowledge that current federal policies have had a role to play in the situation we have at hand. However, I think that it is also very important to realize the cyclicality of the energy industry and I'm certain that a large part of the present supply/demand imbalance in energy has been greatly exacerbated by the very weak prices in energy in 1998 through mid 1999. Mostly as a result of supply imbalances (i.e. excesses) that the industry created in 1997 without regard to government interventions. Re: But the Clinton administration's chief energy price forecaster appeared to pour cold water on the idea. Mark Mazur, head of the Energy Information Administration, said a U.S.-Canada border price of $4 per thousand cubic feet, or Mcf, the equivalent of an MMBtu, would be needed to support the Alaskan gas line. The EIA has forecast wellhead gas prices will fall to an average $2.49/Mcf in 2005 from current levels before rising gradually to $2.69 in 2010 Sen. Murkowski did a pretty good job of demolishing the notion of the EIA's forecasting ability at the Energy subcommittee meeting last week. I see prices holding above the $4 level throughout this winter. [Aside: This, in spite of the re-allocation of fertilizer stocks into the energy mix. It's interesting to realize that the grain crop of 2001 in the U.S. will most likely be down because of less fertilizer, or much more expensive fertilizer, for these crops next season.] And I have no idea how they are coming up with the $2.49 to $2.69 scenario for 2005-2010. This seems to be highly unrealistic to me. I feel certain that prices will be much higher than that. Margie, I've been enjoying the coverage of the energy market lately at www.energynewslive.com. This is a service of Williams Corp. I would have to say that I'm a tad disappointed to hear that you consider my comment on speculation to be "obtuse". It was based on information that I received from ENL, among other sources, regarding the activity on the traders desks in Tulsa, at the NYMEX and from the CAISO's published information on the wholesale electricity market in California. I don't find my comment to be obtuse, in the sense that I'm slow to understand. I find it to be fact based and quite correctly assessing the situation on the ground. You may or may not be aware of the rumors that were being spread on the trading floors regarding the severe weather in the Pacific Northwest about 10 days ago, rumors that were part of a concerted effort at deception. Weather here was actually relatively balmy. But the speculators used that "story" along with other shadings of the truth to create an opportunistic buyer's frenzy in the gas market. (You do realize, I hope, that the spot price peaked at $62/MCF, and has subsequently dropped to about $30/MCF in California, now that the "corner" has ended) It is this deception with the intention of capitalizing on the resulting panic that I find so distasteful, and has been the cause of a great deal of attention on the part of the governors of Californian, Oregon, and Washington, the Secretary of Energy, FERC and a good number of Senators and Congresspersons. This crisis in California energy is not going away any time soon. And it is a pity that there are scoundrels in the markets who find this to be an opportunity to gouge not only the citizens, but also the IPPs of the West Coast. That was my point. And not that federal policy doesn't have anything to do with the situation. Of course it does. I'll readily agree with you on that. But, what is of far greater impact is the failed effort at de-regulation of the California energy market. Someone got it wrong. I'm not sure myself if the best policy would be to go to a more market based solution from here, including individual households, or to revert back to more of a regulated monopoly regime. I'm hoping a pragmatic, rather than an ideological solution will show itself. But I'm not holding my breath. This is a fine mess that we've created. :) Re: As they continue their efforts to delegitimize the President Since you have me on ignore, there's no way that I can tell you that I think you are somewhat presumptuous here, since I doubt you are referring to the actual President in office today and are in point of fact referring to the President-Elect, Time's "Man of the Year", who seems to be able to do a fine job of delegitimizing himself: geedubyah.com TTFN, Ray :) PS: I'm not feeling like reciprocity is requisite in regards to the "ignore" feature. Your post had merit. A couple of URLs would also have been appreciated. Thanks.