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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (64567)	12/18/2000 1:30:29 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 99985

I loaded the boat with KLAC, MCDT, AMAT, SEBL, PPRO when we were down -25.....thanks for your help...if we finish above today's highs...will be a nice day indeed..fingers crossed.. I suppose I'll punt if we go down past 2595 on heavy volume, but am not certain, given the heavy oversold Naz, and 5 straight down days...may just hold anyway... BTW- I also enjoy your EWave analysis....but if I understood you correctly (that you think a Wave up to 7000+ is a possibility)..well, that seems just too frothy for me, and violats(again) the Naz channel log since 1990....the only time we violated it previously (were above it) was when the Fed increased liquidity during Y2K scare (Nov. 99-March 00)....which was a totally once-in-a-lifetime deal, IMO.....kindof like 5150 Naz (anytime soon).....I can see the Feds cutting rates pretty soon, but it will not create the liquidity bubble we had a year ago, and AG will be careful not to allow "bubble-like" (in 99, giving us our 8% GDP quarter in 4Q last year)...I expect that, at best, any rally can only pierce the 1990 upper channel line only a little/some.....so those calling for a move to 3400/3500...I can see that possibility- but will trade for 2900, and a convincing finish above 3100 will get me long again...... I figure when this rally dies (End-of-year? Jan.?/Feb.?)- if it indeed is a rally......then comes the big kahuna wave down, and we get our real washout (I like the Louis Navillier idea of folks opening up their statement in early/mid January, and gasping, and then selling).....Surely, this market won't allow the BIG KAHUNA down wave going into Xmas.....that would truly be Grinch-like <G>...for a present-less year..