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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (38315)	12/18/2000 2:31:39 PM
From: dawgfan2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

My best guess is FMOC moves to neutral in Dec and waits for all the year end sales and wage numbers to come in for Jan. meeting. This way, AG has the most updated numbers from the retailers, and other consumer related purchasing. With those numbers in hand, he will have a good pulse on the economy, since the Holidays account for up to 40% of some companies yearly sales. Sales are looking soft so far and the I-nets should be in the books at this point. But this coming weekend for the mortar's are the big litmus test. Retailer's (and maybe the market) are fortunate that they get the big weekend bang this year with X-mas on a Monday. That is my opinion on why all the interviewed store managers are saying they are flat to 2-3% down. Americans are the big procrastinators (how many are you still shopping??) and this coming weekend should be a biggie. Watch the January Inventory markdowns for further clues. If Retailer sale events are down and dirty, I would be cautious. Signaling a clearing of the warehouse that's still full and missed margin dollars. (Course, I will be shopping that sale like crazy!!) When that data is analyzed, we will have our big picture. In the meantime, I am still waiting for the crack programmer to come out and say Y2K was a big joke, it's 01/01/01 ya'll should be worried about. Maybe that will push tech spending back over the top for year-end! <gg> CW25