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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinMark who wrote (119414)	12/18/2000 3:34:17 PM
From: Lane Hall-Witt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

KM: I prefer to play the market long rather than short, so I hope you're right. I just see a situation where we've got leadership stocks breaking down (CSCO, SUNW, EMC) and where we're facing a news cycle, after the Fed, which is going to be pretty negative (warnings, earnings). Maybe the market has not yet priced in a friendly Fed, but I doubt it because the bond market has been telling us for some time to expect help from Greenspan. The fact that the bond market hasn't yet lifted the Nasdaq is worrisome to me. Maybe the market has already priced in the earnings slump and some negative guidance. This seems more likely to me, as earnings have been a quite obvious concern for several weeks now; but I also find it hard to ignore the extraordinary valuations of hot-money favorites such as CIEN, ITWO, and JNPR (to name just three). I may be wrong -- indeed, I hope I am -- but I'm just not willing to take on much risk to the long side right now. IMO, we'll need to see some churning and base-building in the CSCOs and SUNWs so the market can find enough big-cap leadership for another sustainable move north. Remember that the largest institutions own literally hundreds of millions of shares in these tech big-cap names, so I'm expecting to see a good deal of distribution while the big money rebalances.