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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: re3 who wrote (87155)12/18/2000 6:19:53 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
Ike, Richebacher does it much better, but I'll try. First, I was a bit overenthusiastic. It is more like 5-8 times. I don't have the actual numbers at my desk right now, so these are approximations. We have had a situation the past 3 or 4 years where more than half of the growth in GDP has come from the sale of computers. The problem is, the GDP calculation of computer sales growth is about 5 to 8 times actual sales growth, depending upon the quarter. Why? Because you are now buying an 800 Mhz box for $1000 when you were buying a 300 Mhz box for $1500. So, the govt. thinks you are getting nearly 3 times the product for 2/3s the price. When you move this argument to servers and mainframes, it gets even more dramatic. So, something like $170 in sales growth has been counted as anywhere from $570 to $1000 in sales growth as far as contribution to GDP growth goes. This has been over half the growth rate nearly every quarter and was as great as 82% of the GDP growth rate one quarter.

So, the simple fact is, GDP growth has been hugely overstated, unless you buy the hedonistic argument, which I do not. Richebacher compares it to horsepower in a car. If you buy a car with double the horsepower for half the price, what do you count? For cars, the govt. would say you paid half the price you paid last time and credit GDP with half the dollars it did last time (seasonally adjusted, of course <g>). With the same relationship in computers, the govt. credits your lower price sale at 5 to 8 times your previous purchase, despite the fact that you paid less.

How many countries use this type of GDP accounting? Just us. How relevant are current growth rates to previous GDP growth rates? Not a bit. How relevant to foreign growth rates? Apples and oranges. How relevant to electing politicians and allowing the Fed to inflate the credit supply? 100% relevance, dude.