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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (14977)	12/18/2000 7:56:34 PM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

I agree with your assessment about tomorrow - no rate cut but a shift to neutral stance. However, January remains a wild card; I wouldn't rule out political forces behind the scene. Let's face it, no matter how those guys try to disguise it, the Fed is not beyond POLITICS, nor is the Supreme Court as we all witnessed a fortnight ago. In the meantime, $$$-hungry growth sectors and companies can't survive just on nice words alone! Ibexx

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (14977)	12/18/2000 8:26:40 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 24042

JW, I can't of agree with you. Neutral bias tomorrow; however, there will be strong wording to the effect: " We will be watching market trends very closely; so that if conditions where to deteriorate towards excessive slowing then we will be willing to lower rates anytime and sooner than on our next scheduled meeting.... " I can live with that, TA =================================================== Message #14977 from Jim Willie CB at Dec 18, 2000 7:42 PM some predictions not made lightly: - no rate cut tomorrow but neutral bias and lots of nice words (like willingness to respond to deteriorating conditions) - no rate cut in Jan30th meeting either, but easing bias (near calamitous disappointment for markets) we will get a Bush Backfire his insistence on a tax cut will forestall rate cuts and a contentious relationship will develop between Bush and Greensheiss I think the economy will show some moxey and minor strength still the Christmas spending season might be just ok to weak I think a few economic stats will perk up as a last gasp unemployment will not rise enough to suit Greensnot the labor market has been his central focus for a long time meanwhile, energy costs are coming down, and Greenslime will point to this as doing the job of a rate cut in January and Naz will be about 2200-2350 in early February even as we observe Q4 GDP in the estimated 1.9% range but later revised to 1.7% and small Asian economies teeter badly and Telecom Bonds put entire national economies in jeopardy Greenphlegm responds with a rate cut in March after the stock market is in near panic then Greenturd claims victory over inflation, the great threat call me crazy we overestimate The Grinch he is getting old, getting sloppy, getting dumber this time he will put the entire world economy in jeopardy / jim