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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paullie who wrote (22887)	12/18/2000 10:04:52 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Paullie, First, I would like to know what the growth rates of the divisions were. If the communications division was lagging, then the sale is positive IMO, but if the communications division was rapidly expanding, then I would like to know why it was sold and what to expect with the remaining divisions. I believe the reason it was sold was that it wasn't one of the core, strategic divisions. As far as growth is concerned, your guess is as good as mine. The memory group has a potential to grow fairly significantly, even in an economic slow down, because of long term contract. The microprocessor group has the biggest potential to grow, but the demand situation is a big unknown. You can also make a case for the microprocessor division to go nowhere. Overall, the analysts seem to be predicting flat earnings, and basically no growth. In an environment with economy growing strongly, AMD should continue the explosive growth. But we are not in that kind of environment, it appears. Joe

To: Paullie who wrote (22887)	12/18/2000 10:18:56 PM
From: TechieGuy-alt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

So, now the question left in my mind is how to value a company one year out that has decreased profits due to tax affects and the sale of a division. One way to value it would be to consider the 2000 situation (very low tax rate due to tax loss carry forward) to be a one time event and recalculate 2000 with the same tax rate as 2001 expected tax rate. One very large problem with basing any numbers off the Yahoo (i.e. Analysts) numbers is that at this time last year, the analysts were about 500% off for 2000! Anyone who was looking at the "raw" analyst numbers rather than what was happening with the technology and the market place missed about a 5X runup in the stock price (teens to mid 90's- pre split). JMHO TG