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Technology Stocks : Oclaro, Inc. (Avanex-Bookham) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert duke who wrote (1363)	12/19/2000 10:14:12 AM
From: Shaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2293

robert, here's that good post, that jeremic posted to tinkershaw on Dec.14. Forget about my poetic musings, for the moment, regarding the nature of the universe, and how Avanex's solutions, seem to be in sync, with a cutting edge understanding, of cosmic physics. Robert, better to return the discussion to earth, and discuss, jeremic's great post, that links us to a valuable individual," charlie Burgen the GTG's esteemed optics specialst". To: tinkershaw who wrote (1324) From: jeremic Thursday, Dec 14, 2000 1:15 PM ET Reply # of 1364 A similar question regarding the pathway of AVNX product implementation was posted on the GTF - the reply was by Charlie Burger the GTG's esteemed optics specialist . . . Hi Charlie - the AVNX product portfolio has been described as both evolutionary and revolutionary. I was hoping you would clarify the next 2 years of development of optical networks, specifically what do you see as the evolutionary steps required to eventually set the stage for the all-optical circuit switched revolution. What products do you see having the quickest adoption (regardless of how revolutionary they may eventually become). Will the PowerMux be phased into the network initially as superWDM for systems-integrators who want higher channel count and bitrate flexibility, but aren't quite ready to initiate the all-lambda network? AVNX is a very intriguing investment, but I'm still not clear on how the evolution will unfold prior to the revolution. I don't expect you to describe the specifics of this transition, how about just a few of the major milestones to keep an eye on that will indicate the network buildout is on the AVNX path . . . CB: This is a difficult question because Avanex has so many good products and because different networks have different needs, both between and within the different geographies (e.g., MAN v. WAN). Here’s a stab: The next-generation PowerMux, commercially available next year, will bring the cost per lambda down enough that it will begin to make inroads in metro (MAN) networks, certainly by the 2002 timeframe. It is already widely used in the higher-channel-count backbone systems being offered by the likes of Nortel and Fujitsu. Any systems vendor who intends to compete in the 320-channel systems that will likely begin deploying by 2002 if not before the end of 2001 will need to seriously consider Avanex. Their alternatives are not many, if any. Both the Mux and the Shaper do well on legacy fiber because the give superior channel-shape and pulse shape respectively, rendering less important the distortive effects in older fibers. Particularly, the second-order variable Shaper will be welcome by older networks next year. But oddly enough, it will also be welcome by the newer networks that attempt to employ 40 Gbps. Such a high bitrate puts so much demand on a system that it is like rendering the newer fibers as effective as older ones at lower bitrates. So, no 40 Gbps without Avanex. For the same reasons, I think it will be the older networks that first employ PowerExpress while others toy with luring technologies from the likes of Corvis that include Raman and whatever. These latter networks will come into the Avanex fold next, perhaps as early as 2002, when they discover that PowerExpress and wide-and-weak WDM is more cost effective and connective (for revenues). Cogent has already discovered the PowerExchanger optical add/drop multiplexer (OADM) based on PowerMux. OADMs will begin to appear all over the metro next year and in 2002, and I would expect Avanex’s superior technology to make deep inroads. I think the PowerExchanger and next-gen PowerMux will seriously hurt many of the “miracle” all- in-one-box metro startups that made such a splash this year, sending many back to the drawing-board or into bankruptcy by 2002. Avanex’s solution will not only be better and cheaper, it will also allow for scalability—no forklift upgrades and no all-or-nothing “you have to deploy my product everywhere or it won’t work.” Looking back over my post above, I must conclude that while Avanex will be EVERYWHERE, and has certainly made its first inroads in the backbone, I would guess that by the end of 2002 it will be the MAN that will have really propelled Avanex forward. View Replies (1) \| View Next 10 Messages \| Respond \| Previous \| Next Bookmark this Subject