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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Maloney who wrote (87170)	12/19/2000 10:36:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Terry, I agree that's the word, no cut today, but we may see the bias shift all the way to softening, that's also an unexpected event, but I think it has a better than 3/26 chance. John ------------ The primary dealers are united in expecting no change in Fed policy rates later today. All 26 expect no change and a softening in the risk assessment from the inflation risk in the November announcement. Only 3 of the 26 look for a shift to an ease bias (recession risk) while the vast majority share our expectation for a move to neutral. There is varied opinion on the timing of the ease, however. Most expect it in January, many are hedging with a move in the first quarter (remaining correct if delayed until March) and a few push it out to the first half, mid-year or late in 2001.