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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GuinnessGuy who wrote (36789)12/19/2000 8:42:30 AM
From: Bruce Brown  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
I'm not sure I agree with the above statement. BRCD already has something like 90% of the switch sales. There's just not much more market share to eat away at.

They have 60% of the overall FC switch market. That's up from 30% one year ago.

Also, the fastest growing segment of the market is forecasted to the in the director class switches where BRCD has yet to demonstrate a viable product. They have also yet to demonstrate a 2 gig/sec fibre channel switch. Maybe they will be get both of these two deficiencies corrected in time for the market, but in the not too distant future their backs will be up against the wall without these offerings.

By what forecast? That's the key. I guess that's why you had 90% of your portfolio in Ancor before QLogic made the acquisition. Has the market place even demanded the 2 gig/sec switch yet? Who is shipping product? Why is the market embracing the looped switches vision of Brocade as opposed to the director class? Is the market wrong? Brocade has announced two larger port switches and certainly will be focusing on providing what the end customer is demanding. Likewise, I imagine their R&D is quite focused. Brocade has made a point not to announce future technologies even though they are working on them. Does this mean their back is up against the wall?

And the stock is priced for perfect execution.

Name some dominant technology stocks that are not priced for perfect execution. In your review of the last 9 quarters of Brocade's execution, have you found any failed execution? If they weren't executing, they wouldn't be priced like they were.

BB

P.S. Ciena to acquire Cyras.



To: GuinnessGuy who wrote (36789)12/19/2000 9:29:45 AM
From: DownSouth  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 54805
 
Craig, you post seems to have two edges. Which do I choose? On one hand you say they have 90% market share and on the other you say their backs are against the wall.

I am not trying to defend the stock. I have an open mind about this marketplace, as it is built on sand that shifts rapidly because of ill-defined standards and a stream of disruptive and competing innovations.