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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (4172)	12/19/2000 9:51:05 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

I can't say there's anything new or intelligent in the piece. Since when does 15% sequential growth (after a year of much higher sequential growth) equal 40% year over year? Gee Brent, what is 1.15 to the fourth power? I thought basic math was a requirement for analysts. More to the point, I'm not even sure the evidence is there that enterprise growth is slowing that much. Thill may be right for the wrong reasons. Broadly the piece is silly (and if read thoroughly most people will realize it says almost nothing.) That doesn't offset the cancer of perpetual licensing and the fact that every uptick in the current market is viewed as a selling opportunity. It will be interesting to read thill's convoluted analysis of q1 results. TD

To: Boplicity who wrote (4172)	12/19/2000 10:51:17 AM
From: muckraker71	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

60% y/y growth in Q3? What's that? I seem to recall topline growth of 130%+ in Q3. Tom has been widely quoted as saying "growth will slow" going forward. He said it in a CNBC interview earlier this month, and he said it on the Q3 con call. Furthermore, I (often) follow Chuck Phillips at MSDW, and he was quoted as saying SEBL's growth would slow into the mid 40% range. That's obviously conservative, but coming off of 100%+, a dramatic slowdown should already be priced in the stock. In fact, Yahoo shows next year's earnings estimate at .66 from .47 this year. That's about 40% earnings growth. I haven't read Thill's note, but I'd surprised if there was anything new or substantial in the note.