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Strategies & Market Trends : Love shack -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Miller who wrote (210)	12/19/2000 11:22:14 AM
From: Grandk	Respond to of 322

IBI looks attractive here. My problem is this. In a recession, will people be willing to pay for their product. I say "their", as in all retailers. Notice how ANF has been hit so hard recently. Their overpriced clothing is of no use to a family in financial crisis. With a ton of J6P money in the Naz, where will the money come from to purchase these unnecessary items?

To: D. Miller who wrote (210)	12/19/2000 11:46:00 AM
From: Grandk	Respond to of 322

Here's another reason why I will avoid retail. At least for now. Dollar Tree shares slide 41 percent due to profit warning NEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Shares of Dollar Tree Stores Inc. (NasdaqNM:DLTR - news) fell 41 percent in early trading on Tuesday after the discount variety store chain warned its fourth-quarter earnings will be well below Wall Street expectations due to disappointing holiday sales. Shares of Dollar Tree were off $15 at $21-3/8 after falling to a new 52-week low of $20-3/4 early Tuesday on the Nasdaq. The stock price has a 12-month high of $48-1/4. Mark D. Mandel, an analyst who covers Dollar Tree stock for The Robinson-Humphrey Co., said the stock had already reached its lowest price range and would not fall any further. ``Once it has settled down, it will be OK,'' Mandel said. Goldman Sachs cut earnings per share estimates for Dollar Tree to 60 cents from 70 cents for the fourth quarter and to $1.33 from $1.55 for 2001. On Monday, the Chesapeake, Va.-based retailer of products such as housewares, toys and books priced at $1 each, said it expected earnings of 59 cents to 62 cents a diluted share, and revenue between $605 million and $615 million for the fourth quarter, which includes the critical final holiday shopping weeks of the year. Analysts' consensus estimate was 70 cents a share for the quarter, according to First Call/ Thomson Financial biz.yahoo.com

To: D. Miller who wrote (210)	12/19/2000 2:34:20 PM
From: Grandk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 322

Somehow the markets are green. The statement in bold leads me to believe that a recession is likely, and a depression is possible. Once again, denial at it's finest. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Tuesday but warned the economy was slowing so fast that there was a risk of a sharp downturn, a signal the central bank was preparing to cut rates soon. The statement issued by the Federal Open Market Committee at the conclusion of its eighth and final session this year represented a sharp shift from its 11-month-old position that inflation was the greatest risk the record U.S. expansion faced. The Fed kept its federal funds overnight bank lending rate at 6.5 percent for now, where it has been since a half-percentage point increase in May. The more symbolic discount rate on Fed loans to banks remains at 6.0 percent.