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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (10057)	12/19/2000 11:35:14 AM
From: jghutchison	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Kenneth, "Apparently, the relatively high cost of deploying metro DWDM is prolonging the life of SONET in the metro space." I believe you have your wires crossed. The relatively high cost of SONET legacy equipment has created a market for more efficient, cheaper, less power hungry, and smaller DWDM transmission equipment, optical switching (CoreDirector CI), and for Cyras' type edge access switching equipment. The latter are quickly capturing market share from the former. The handwriting is on the wall. Sales of legacy equipment will shortly peak, then plunge, as the market quickly adopts cutting edge DWDM, optical switching, and "new" edge access switch gear. The transition is in progress right now. And it is being accelerated by capex reductions on expensive and obsolete SONET equipment, with that precious capital being more fully applied to less costly and more efficient technology. Jack Hutchison