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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (4178)	12/19/2000 4:07:47 PM
From: Allegoria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Mike, since we are not on the G&K thread let me say that IMO SEBL is living proof of the reason LTB&H is good for some of the people some of the time but not all the people all the time. I appreciate that you disagree but you have repeatedly made your point about LTB&H and to date I just don't think it is supportable. All IMO Mike. You go through great hoops and barrels on what stocks to buy in what sectors and what technology (which is extraordinarily difficult in itself!) but you don't acknowledge the same justifications on placing investments on macro trends within the huge world/US economy. Notice I mentioned macro trends…please do not confuse this as a poster did on the NTAP thread and relate it to "trading", however YOU define that term. Macro trends - what are these things anyway? It goes along with the old aphorisms of not "fighting the Fed" and "the trend is your friend" and bla bla bla. Both as true today as ever! Anyway, as of today I do not totally agree with LTB&H logic. It is a great option for those without the time or resources to analyze and make decisions about the macro trends in economies, but is appears to be a rather 'blind' option for those that do. All JIMO. I just checked and your note about SEBL top line growth including international sales seems correct. I might note that due to this emphasis on international, SEBL immediately incurs investors worries about international currency trades, i.e. strong dollar, overseas economies, hedging and the like. Does anyone know if in the history of SEBL earnings they ever noted/acknowledged their hedging strategy in previous quarters? Will they be caught with their pants down as many other big companies have in the past? I am long once again on SEBL - 64 1/16. Good luck all, Eric

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (4178)	12/20/2000 2:38:07 AM
From: muckraker71	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

In looking at my notes from the Q3 con call, North American lic rev growth was 83% for the qtr. Based on the numbers given, I wasn't able to determine that core domestic enterprise growth was 60% in the quarter. In other words, how does Thill come up with growth rates for both Siebel's enterprise and Siebel's MME segments in the N. Amer. market? It's not possible to know this unless Thill knows the ratio of MME license revenue vs. enterprise license revenue in North America. If you had this number, you could derive the MME growth rate and the enterprise growth rate by knowing the combined growth rate in North America of 83%. But we are not given this ratio within North America; we ARE given the ratio company-wide, which (from my notes) was 27% in 3Q00 vs. 25% in 2Q00. But it is not prudent to assume that the company-wide ratio of 27% applies to each geographical region equally, as each region is in a different state of market maturity. I even tried speculating on some of these ratios to try and come up with an enterprise growth rate in North America. But there simply is not enough data for the equation; I end up making assumptions that could radically change the number in question. TD, as to the cancer which infects Siebel, I agree it's terminal, but I think the patient has at least 4 quarters left before we put this firm on the respirator.