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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: 16yearcycle who wrote (4203)12/19/2000 1:29:53 PM
From: Si_Detective  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57684
 
Come on guys, look at the bigger picture. This slow down is compounded by product maturity(in PC) and product transition(in wireless). Broadband is the last leg that will help us to ease the slowdown but it itself is facing trouble because of many factors including many company has incurr high debt and have to slow down spending. But this is just short term problem, may be 3 months, may be 6 months or 1 or 3 years, but question is will there be any need for it. Answer is yes.
Now look at the PC sector, it's kinda saturated at this stage in US, there will need a some type of speed hungry application, like robotic intelligence(scratching my head:)) to boost CPU sales again. It may not in conventional PC form, it may be other type of devices.
On wireless side, the adoption of 3G is steaming ahead in some other countries, like Asia and Europe. It'll be here soon, and it'll be another major driving force of high tech growth like they did in the past few years. Oh, how about bluetooth, we started to see many devices coming out and there will be many application and innovation in this area, and you bet it is silicon intensive too.
Uh, broadband, I don't even need to mention this one, it'll still be a star in next 10 years.
I'm bullish long term, and expect a industry recovery after summer next year, but I bet the market will recover sooner than than. At the meantime, I'm still holding my shorts. :)))



To: 16yearcycle who wrote (4203)12/19/2000 3:38:26 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 57684
 
Lets say a company is selling at a forward pe of 29 and they get into a slowdwon -- sales don't materialize and their margins get hurt by more competition and then whamo, their profits dive by 50% to 75%. All of a sudden they have a forward p/e of 60 to 100 even though their stock is down fifty percent in price.