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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (87205)	12/19/2000 6:54:21 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

please name another finagling that doubled gdp (productivity) I believe the equation for determining productivity is economic output revenue and earnings) divided by the number of hours worked (as reported on W-2 wage and earnings statements). So are you saying that AG is lying about the amount of products being sold or the number of hours being worked by hourly wage earners? Please correct me, if I'm mistaken... easy al has not constricted money supply. hmmm... the last I heard money supply growth was most recently at approx 1% versus the 16% it saw at the end of last year (Y2K inoculation). If I'm in error, please set me straight. wrt interst rates in the 50s, huh, times are different. Why? The US made up some 50% of global economic output just after WWII. Can you imagine the trade surplus we ran at that time? Also, services are not being properly incorporated into trade deficit figures and that is an arena in which the US is seeing tremendous growth. interest rates turned negative in japan for a period of time. That's because the Japanese, lacking any significant safety net, are socking away their yen like a squirrel anticipating an ice age. And this is exacerbated by Japanese demographics and a xenophobic fear of foreign labor. 1 in 4 Japanese will be above 60 within 5-10 years. And the fact that Japan is a very homogenous society, which disdains importing workers and tainting their culture, that means that tax burdens will be born by fewer and fewer workers (to pay a national debt that is closing in on 130% of GDP). That's why the Japanese have $12 Trillion in savings socked away and Japan faces a classic liquidity trap. The only way in which they will be able to force people to spend is to devalue the yen and monetize their national debt. I can't tell you when this will happen, but I can predict with some certainty that it eventually will. But something will have to give. And that will likely send quite a bit of that money over here seeking safety and better returns until the devaluation is completed. (can we say "political unrest"?) with much of the loaned money going into an asset bubble I fail to see the data that suggests people are borrowing money to add to the amounts they are already contributing as a percentage of wages into their 401Ks/IRAs. People have essentially set their programs up to put so much into their retirement plans on a monthly basis BASED ON THEIR WAGES. Now I'm sure there are people who are playing on margin trying to "juice up" their returns as a result of knowing this amount of money is finding its way into retirement accounts on a monthly basis. But that, imo, doesn't compare to the monthly contributions that slush back and forth from index funds to money markets to bond funds. People are not completely stupid (not all of them anyway.. ;0). They know so long as money flow into retirement and pension plans continue over the long term, the market is still in a bull trend, even if it takes hits from time to time to purge speculation and consolidate. Now unless we find ourselves with significant unemployment or a decrease in retirement inflows, money will continue to flow until the boomers become more concerned with locking in gains (buying bonds) than growing their portfolios. Then look for US bonds to act similarly to JGBs. The only difference is that the US is still open to immigration to meet decreasing labor pools, thus being able to maintain some form of tax base. Alright... your turn...take aim!! Fire away... Regards, Ron