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To: rolatzi who wrote (82096)	12/19/2000 2:35:44 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

I agree. We need a mass capitulation in techland, not this slow bleed. Perhaps folks getting their Mutual Fund performance reports will be the catalyst.

To: rolatzi who wrote (82096)	12/19/2000 2:44:32 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I agree tech is far too risky here. 1) We're still in earnings warning season 2) Intel is freezing capital spending. 3) The telecoms took on too much debt too fast and will slow down cap ex 4) Corporate IT budgets are slowing 5) Consumer spending is slowing dramatically 6) Energy shortages likely this winter in HO and NG. 7) Slowing global economy 8) Possibility of a recession or hard landing in 2001 and beyond The street has really only started to talk about these issues in the last 2-3 months. The six months previous was merely a multiple-contraction and had little to do with fundamentals. I remember when the Asian crisis first hit it really took 9-12 months before stocks fully reflected what was going on. We're still only 2-3 months into this new reality of a slowing growth combined with high energy prices and bad debt. Yes we're oversold technically and I have played some short term moves in tech, but on risk/reward basis it's still not a safe bet unless you're a short term trader. Looks like the Fed meeting was a sell on the news. Can't see anything really moving the markets higher until we start to get a Fed rate cut (which now won't be until Jan 31st). Even earnings will be another opportunity for companies to confirm that they see slower growth ahead (even if they make this Q's #). I see the capitulation phase starting soon. I reallocated my gold holdings today. Now own HM, HGMCY, GOLD, GLG in pretty equal amounts with a small amount of DROOY as well. Basically this amounted to selling some DROOY today and adding more GOLD and GLG. GLG added more low cost Honduras production today ($115). GLG is a safer play than DROOY based upon cost of production and size. Also not crazy about what I read about DROOY's management either.