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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRH who wrote (36810)	12/19/2000 3:57:59 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

including a set of definitive criteria May prove to be a "tough nut", but all thoughts ( cuts, etc.) are welcome. OT - interesting day. lurqer

To: JRH who wrote (36810)	12/20/2000 1:44:58 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Justin: Thanks to you, the W&W exists. And it is a credit to much trailblazing work on your part and contributions from others as it evolved. And it has not only an excellent track record, but it has provided the opportunity for some excellent discussions on this thread. Therefore my suggestion is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater. While rigorous criterea are always welcome, some sort of grandfather provision, or higher burden of proof on those who propose to eliminate a current W&W company would seem sensible so we do not lose more than gain in the "restructuring" process. With that said, a review of the W&W along the lines you suggest could well be the focus for new and productive discussions of the current and proposed companies. As some old timers may recall, it has always seems crucial to me to thoroughly research the technology in which a gorilla or king or candidate for either lives. (And to me the first consideration is an examination of technologies to see which seem to have the best potential for rapid growth and pervasiveness, and then the choice of leaders within them as the next step - looking for gorillas and kings or candidates that way) And to me, looking at the future of those technologies and keeping up with them as much as practical is a sine qua non for owning them and certainly for sleeping each night in relative comfort. So my suggestion would be that one element of your criteria be a discussion of the technological field or market where the candidate operates and the future potential of those technologies and how the proposed company fits within it, as well as nuts and bolts on the company itself. Very much look forward to your proposals and the discussion which will follow. Best as always. Cha2

To: JRH who wrote (36810)	12/20/2000 1:51:04 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

I plan to formulate a a methodical way to propose a stock for inclusion on the W&W list One possibility might be that there should be more than one Watch and Wait according to categories of companies we are interested in following, e.g., segregate early stage companies that haven't quite broken through in size or tornado activity.

To: JRH who wrote (36810)	1/17/2001 8:01:46 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

W & W update The W&W Portfolio was created to keep track of emerging companies who have Gorilla (and, to a smaller degree, Kings) potential. For 2001, I am going to modify this to contain companies who, under normal circumstances, would belong to the GKI if they were held widely enough. For example, GMST, the gorilla in the mostly-mature VCR programming market (w/ VCR+) (and potential gorilla in the EPG market), is not widely held enough to belong on the GKI, so it will be added to the W&W. Information that I am looking for in order to convince me to add a company to the W&W includes the following: · Market: 1.) What market will this company's products displace (i.e. There must be discontinuous innovation for a gorilla to emerge)? 2.) What's the current market size and what are the 3-5 year projections for this marketplace in terms of size / growth? (i.e. is there a Tornado?) 3.) What other industries could potentially tie into this market and create value chains to the industry leader? (i.e. Gorilla's develop value chains). · Company: 1.) Evidence that this company currently has a commanding market share or is becoming a standard. 2.) What is the company's market cap? (Hopefully greater than $300 million). 3.) Who are the main competitors, and what do they (the competitors and the company) do differently? 4.) What will it take for this company's products to cross the chasm? It would also help to have a Project Hunt report posted on the thread. If the company has the gorilla potential that these criteria help identify and there is enough interest on the thread in the company, I will add it to the portfolio. Questions? Justin Sir Chartmeister, W&W portfolio keeper