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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Levine who wrote (40946)	12/19/2000 4:11:31 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Agree with you. Bush tax cuts have to get thru congress and are months away at best. My feeling is that AG was protecting feds reputation by moving 2 steps rather that the 3 necessary for actual actual reduction. An actual cut after the november inflation bias would have made him appear stupid by not recognizing month-away slowdown at at that time. Instead he now acts stupidly risking the overall health of the economy. Good news is we will probably get rate cut early in january rather that waiting until 1/31/ meeting and if he regains his smarts it will be 1/2 point. Merry Christmas everyone. Do the economy a favor and disregard the negative wealth effect and GO SHOPPING. The job to save the economy may be that simple. And please buy pc's and cell phones.

To: Fred Levine who wrote (40946)	12/19/2000 4:46:58 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

These guys don't need to go too far out on a limb with this prediction. Q1 isonly a week away! ************************************ Chip softness will continue in Q1 of 2001, predicts research firm Advanced Forecasting claims it was 'the lone wolf' warning of current slowdown in the past year Semiconductor Business News (12/19/00 10:22 a.m. PST) CUPERTINO, Calif. -- With the year 2000 ending on a weak note for semiconductor companies, Advanced Forecasting Inc. here today continued to warn of softer bookings and delays in chip orders in 2001. Advanced Forecasting also did a little chest pounding, by bragging that it was the only major research firm to "accurately" predict the semiconductor's turning point in the fourth quarter of 2000. "As expected, signs of slowing semiconductor sales have been emerging with each passing month, confirming our mid-99 prediction for the second half of 2000," said David Crume, Advanced Forecasting's director of marketing and sales. The Cupertino-based company described itself as a "lone wolf" in predicting the current semiconductor slowdown, when other market researchers were still forecasting a boom in chip sales through 2003. At the annual Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) in Pebble Beach, Calif., last January, analysts from Advanced Forecasting stunned the meeting by predicting an 80% probability of a significant downturn in semiconductor sales during 2000 (see Jan. 11 story). Other analysts at the executive summit were bullish about 2000 and 2001. But at the January meeting, Advanced Forecasting suggested that there was an 80% chance of a turning point--or "elbow"--in the trend line during the second quarter of 2000--a few quarters ahead of the current turning point. After a strong second quarter, inventory corrections in the second half of 2000 put a damper on what has been a strong year in chip growth. The major question now is whether the correction will be completed early next year, with strong revenue growth resuming in later in 2001. Advanced Forecasting warned that it expects to see a continuation of softer bookings, push-outs from chip customers, inventory buildup, and inventory-driven backlog adjustments in the first quarter of 2001. The research firm added that chip manufacturers have overbuilt capacity based on an inflated demand for semiconductors. "Unfortunately, as in previous cycles, chip and semiconductor equipment suppliers have relied on qualitative information which is based on extrapolations," Crume said. "They have been mislead by bullish forecasts of demand for IC and end equipment applications, which motivated them to gear up for anticipated strong demand for the remainder of 2000 and 2001." Advanced Forecasting claims its quantitative Short-Term IC Forecast has accurately predicted five downturns since the mid-1980s.