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To: Gary Ng who wrote (123336)	12/19/2000 4:05:12 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 186894

Gary, It's the economy as a whole that can't grow at the present rates much longer. I believe that we had an unsustainable bubble in consumer spending the last few years as the direct result of the stock market and the wealth effect. We are now about to pay for that spending with a period of below trend line growth in consumer spending. It's very possible that rates will go much lower the next year to try and counteract this. I could easily see the Fed Funds rate approaching 3% again. The dollar will drop by 15-20%. I would say further if I wasn't predicting a corresponding drop in rates world wide.