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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TheBusDriver who wrote (3188)12/19/2000 4:30:40 PM
From: Claude Cormier  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8010
 
<I am begining to worry a bit about some of my silver stocks!>

I would not Wayne.

At $4 silver, BAY has a net asset value near $3.75 per share based on 15 millions shares out. Year 1 and two will see cash flows of US$29 millions after tax with silver at $4. Assuming the possibility (could be much less) of 25 millions shares outstanding when we reach production...this would mean cash flows of $C1.75 per share.



To: TheBusDriver who wrote (3188)12/20/2000 9:29:20 AM
From: Raja  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8010
 
QUOTE: My "proof" of the amount of silver leasing is as follows. First off, noone denies silver leasing exists. Just what the amount is. We also know it's cumulative, since silver, like gold, loans are never paid off net-net. So we are talking about an amount that has grown over the years. I claim the most reasonable answer to the very legitimate question, "how can silver prices be so low, with such a long term deficit?", is that leasing has funded the physical deficit. Since, there is a reported cumulative deficit of 1.5 billion ounces over the past decade, saying the amount of cumulative leasing is 1 billion ounces, seems reasonable to me. In addition, with a handful of mining companies ( ABX, Pasminco, PDG, and a few others ) you can get to 100 million. The problem with silver leasing, is it's not just the miners, it's the fabricators and users. I was able to verify, from a Philipenes CB press release a couple of years ago, they had maybe 300 million ounces of silver leased out. In addition, because silver is so cheap, it takes a lot of ounces to make a decent dollar amount, so that it's worth it to the banksters. A billion ounces of silver is only $5 billion. Compared to gold, for instance, with over $50 to $100 billion out on loan ( 5 to 10K tons ) . If you think my numbers of 1 billion ounces, or 5 billion dollars, are out of line, let me know why.

The business of drawing inventories of anything down to fund a physical deficit for a long time, with lower, or flat, and not higher is impossible under the laws of supply and demand. Unless a non-free market explanation exists. This is the most important feature of the law of supply and demand. I'm not at all familiar with uranium, but I'm sure there is such an explanation. In palladium, though, you have lost me. It's up 15+ fold in ten years.

Hambone - while I agree with some of what you say, If a market is rigged, it ain't just psychology that's gonna change it. The whole point on inventories, is this - I say we ain't got jackschitt in inventories. Other say plenty. I say when we go in price, we go big. Giganto. Others say we take baby steps. I base my opinion on a lot of things. If there is as little in inventory as I suspect, that's more fuel. Waiting for the price to tell you, won't give you enough time to get aboard.

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