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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (4240)	12/19/2000 8:44:18 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

I have to agree with you somewhat GST. If you guys are going to short stocks it's best to short stuff like BRCD BRCM, and other extreme high PE stocks. Fiber Optics stocks as well as people are going to learn the hard way tomorrow. But some stocks are resisting the bad news. INTC was practically unchanged on the day. NVLS was up nice today, so was TXN. AMAT was only down a little. Look at CPQ and GTW, they were even up. Trashed stocks like T were up and WCOM was only down negligibly. Lots of financials held up well today considering. So price does matter, and I think stocks like INTC and SUNW have monumental bad news priced into them. I have not changed my bullish stance, even though the Fed didn't cooperate today. The Fed meeting was the catalyst I was looking for. He could have cut rates and that would have been an immediate positive catalyst. As it stands now, his not cutting rates is the catalyst which is going to cause some capitulation this week. Sometimes you have to go lower to flush everyone out before you can go higher. But in the process of going lower things get so negative and you pick up so many shorts along the way that it's ok even if you started buying a day or two early, because the snapback is so violent. Like I said, people like me who started buying today can sometimes look foolish at first, but then no one looks like a hero at the bottom. They look like a total dope for going long. I have NO PROBLEM buying more call options tomorrow. It just won't be on ridiculously priced fiber and storage stocks like CIEN and BRCD. It will be on stocks that have mucho bad news priced into them and have PE's around 20-30. INTC, SUNW, AMAT, CSCO under 40, etc. I might even have to look again at some YHOO calls now that it's REALLY getting ugly and shorts are piling on.

To: GST who wrote (4240)	12/19/2000 8:50:53 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 57684

GST: >> The economy is slowing down beyond what I expected. The energy crunch has been wicked. Consumers are skittish. Telecoms are in financial trouble and the banks have exposure to loans which are not going to get paid back. The risks of a hard landing go up by the day. << Sounds like double speak to me GST. On the one hand you rail against a Fed cut because you argue it will bring back froth to the market. Then in another breath you claim that our economy is toppling like a house of cards, which is justification for the Fed to cut rates, is it not? You can't have it both ways can you? You think the Fed should not cut rates because of a few bubble stocks, and he should let the economy slip into a "hard landing" at the same time? Perhaps you're just heavily short and want some sort of apocalypse to profit from.