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To: John Pitera who wrote (49352)	12/19/2000 6:35:39 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

John, you may have noticed, the SnP is difficult to count, and no two e-wavers are agreeing on how to. so my reco would be to look at the following, and see what you come up with: VGY (need at least a three year chart, as you need to begin counting from the April '98 top) , NAZ and Wilshire 5K. those have imo the cleanest structures, and they do imply more negativity long term. however, i personally think the current down cycle will reach somewhat lower than 1235-45, although i HAVE seen this level come up in other analyses and it seems to me at least to be a likely ST support point. too early to say imo if it is more than that. we'll see how loud the bear marching band's music will be playing at that level...it has to be a lot louder than now, and needs to be accompanied by technical non-confirmations. time wise, a cycle low coincides exactly with the expected rate cut in late Jan. that should be a good starting point for a more durable rally.