Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (5673)	12/19/2000 6:11:37 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

U.S. Retailers' Sales Decline 0.6% From Prior Week By Shobhana Chandra New York, Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers' same-store sales fell for a third straight week, slipping 0.6 percent and raising concern that stores will miss sales forecasts this holiday season, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. and UBS Warburg said. Bank of Tokyo economist Michael Niemira cut his estimate for November-December same-store sales to a gain of 2 percent to 4 percent, from a 4 percent rise. Winter storms in the Midwest and south-central U.S. damped demand, he said. Shopper traffic at malls fell 9.6 percent in the seven days ended Dec. 16 from a year ago, the National Retail Federation and RCT Systems Inc. said. Analysts had expected sales to pick up in mid-December as consumers who had postponed buying gifts started their holiday shopping. A sales surge in the final days before Christmas may not be enough to shore up retailers' profits, which likely will be hurt by steep price cuts, analysts and investors said. ``It's too late to save Christmas now,'' said analyst Brian James of Loomis, Sayles & Co., which holds retail shares such as Target Corp. ``I didn't expect it to be this bad. I now expect (fourth-quarter) profit will be below what I'd thought prior to Thanksgiving.'' Shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. fell $2.56 to $48, Target fell $2.94 to $28.75 and Federated Department Stores Inc. fell $2.13 to $29. Sears, Roebuck & Co. fell 53 cents to $33.37, and J.C. Penney Co. fell 31 cents to $8.94. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 0.3 percent in the week ended Dec. 9. from the prior week, when sales fell 2.6 percent. Consumers this year have an extra weekend to complete their shopping compared with last year because Christmas falls on a Monday. Same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, are a key indicator of a retailer's business because they exclude new and closed stores. Holiday Sales Holiday sales gains this year were expected to trail last year, retailers' best performance in seven years, analysts said. In 1999, retailers' same-store sales rose 4.1 percent in November and 6.7 percent in December, for an average gain of 5.4 percent, Bank of Tokyo said. Sales rose 4 percent this November, in line with estimates, Bank of Tokyo said. Retailers have been slashing prices to draw shoppers amid concerns that consumer spending may slow because of rising interest rates and energy prices, and declines in the stock market. The discounts so far have failed to give sales the expected boost, and many retailers have said sales this month are below estimates. ``We have to recognize the reality that sales in the first three weeks have been below plan,'' Bank of Tokyo's Niemira said. ``Retailers are hoping this week is strong enough to get them closer to plan, but it's a struggle.'' Sales this week will get a boost as Hanukkah begins on Friday and customers pick up last-minute gifts for Christmas, analysts said. In the last week of December, customers will head to stores to use the gift certificates they got during the holidays. For some retailers, as much as 45 percent of December's sales may come in the last two weeks, Niemira said. Still, the amount of profit from each sale will be reduced as retailers step up discounts to get rid of holiday items ranging from sweaters and jackets to dinnerware, toys and jewelry, analysts said. ``Retailers will be anxious to clear out inventories, you'll see more price cuts this week,'' said Bill Ford, senior economic adviser at TeleCheck Services Inc. ``It'll be a great time to go shopping.'' Sales rose 2.4 percent in the first 24 days of the season starting Friday after Thanksgiving, less than half of last year's 5.8 percent gain, Ford said. TeleCheck analyzed checks written by consumers at about 27,000 locations. The company's forecast for a 4 percent gain in sales in the 31 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas ``looks increasingly difficult,'' Ford said. Sales Results Wal-Mart yesterday said sales in the seven days ended Friday were below its forecast, the third straight week of lower-than- expected results for the world's largest retailer. Sears, the biggest U.S. department-store company, said it hasn't kept pace with December estimates. J.C. Penney said sales for the month are tracking ``at the low end of forecasts.'' Bank of Tokyo's Niemira cut December same-store sales estimates for Target to a gain of 1.5 percent from 3.5 percent. The forecast for Federated Department Stores, owner of the Macy's and Bloomingdale's chains, was reduced to 2 percent from 3 percent. May Department Stores Co.'s forecast was cut to 1.5 percent from 2 percent. Niemira also cut estimates by half for Wal-Mart, Sears and Kmart Corp. Wal-Mart's sales now are expected to rise 1.5 percent, and Kmart and Sears will increase 1 percent. For J.C. Penney, Niemira forecasts a 5 percent decline at its department stores, more than his previous forecast for a 4 percent drop. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (5673)	12/19/2000 6:15:34 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

Treasuries Fall as Fed Keeps Interest-Rate Target Unchanged By Al Yoon New York, Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell as the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and said economic growth may slow, disappointing some investors who hoped a rate cut would come as early as today. Fed officials left the target for overnight lending between banks at 6.5 percent for the fifth meeting since May. While the Fed said it was concerned about economic weakness, some investors expected a stronger statement on the risks of slower growth. If policy-makers ``were really worried they would have cut rates,'' said James Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, which has $75 billion under management. Even as the Fed said concerns of cooling growth outweigh those of faster inflation, that's ``not much different from'' a balanced statement, he said. The most-active 10-year note fell 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, to a price of 104 6/32. Its yield rose 2 basis points to 5.19 percent, 2 basis points above the 20-month low reacehd yesterday. The current two-year note fell 1/32 to 100 1/2 as its yield rose 3 basis points to 5.34 percent. The 30-year bond dropped 15/32 to 111 10/32 as its yield rose 3 basis points to 5.47 percent. The Fed raised its fed funds target by 1.75 percentage points between June 1999 and May of this year to slow growth and rein in inflation. ``While some inflation risks persist, they are diminished by the more moderate pace of economic activity and by the absence of any indication that longer-term inflation expectations have increased,'' the Fed said in its statement. Rising energy costs, eroding consumer confidence and shortfalls in company sales and earnings were cited as evidence of further economic slowing. Some Surprise The meeting's outcome came as a surprise. Just three out of 27 primary dealers that trade directly with the central bank -- Deutsche Bank Securities, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and Nomura Securities International -- expected the Fed to bypass a balanced position to one leaning toward slower growth. For the past three months, futures traders have been pricing in some chance of a Fed rate cut next year. By the end of the first quarter, traders still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a total of a half-point, based on the 5.95 percent implied yield on the April fed funds contract. Fed funds futures are the market's closest match to expected changes in the Fed's target. The 6.175 percent yield on the February contract shows traders see a quarter-point cut coming at the Jan. 31 Fed meeting. Still, not everyone agrees with that assessment. ``We are struck by the mild language (regarding) the slowdown and the reaffirmation that inflation risks remain, said Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York. ``A January (rate cut) is not a done deal.'' A Good Year Investors sold notes and bonds before the meeting as some questioned the magnitude of rate cuts already built into prices, and as they locked in gains from the year's rally that's produced 15 percent returns on 10-year notes and a 21 percent gain for 30- year bonds. ``The market always overshoots, and some people can take advantage of how low yields are'' by selling Treasuries, which have rallied most of the year, said Ken Anderson, who invests $35 billion in government debt at Evergreen Asset Management in White Plains, New York. The 10-year yield may rise to as high as 5.45 percent while trading lags over the winter holidays, he said. Imposing rate reductions sooner rather than later may also reduce the number of cuts needed overall, said Michael Kastner, who invests $10 billion at Bankers Trust Private Banking, a unit of Deutsche Bank AG. He has been buying notes that are likely to outperform bonds as interest rates fall. ``The Fed is cognizant the economy has slowed meaningfully, Kastner said. If they had cut rates today, that would have given them a headstart and allowed policy-makers to be less aggressive with cuts down the line, he said. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (5673)	12/19/2000 6:20:01 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

Nasdaq Hits Lowest Level in Year Nasdaq Composite Hits Lowest Level in More Than a Year, Falling 113 to 2,512 and Dow Industrials End Down 61 at 10,584 By LISA SINGHANIA AP Business Writer NEW YORK (AP) -- The Nasdaq composite index fell to its lowest level in more than a year Tuesday after the Federal Reserve indicated it was worried about the slowing economy, but declined to cut interest rates. Blue chips also tumbled when Wall Street, which had rallied on hopes of a rate cut, again focused on earnings and fears of a possible recession. Analysts said investors were especially spooked by the Fed's recognition that the economy may be slowing too much, too fast. ``The market's worried about earnings, and this tells us that it isn't going to get better anytime soon,'' said Gary Kaltbaum, a technical analyst at JW Genesis. ``As soon as the Fed mouthed its words about the economy, stocks -- especially the Nasdaq which is already in a downturn -- got whacked again.'' The Nasdaq closed down 112.81 to 2,511.71, a 4.3-percent drop, its lowest level since August 1999 and the index's sixth straight losing session. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 61.05 to 10,584.37, a nearly 0.6 percent loss, after gaining as much as 139 points earlier in the session. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 17.14 to 1,305.60, a loss of more than 1 percent. Trading was heavy and extremely volatile after the Fed announcement, which cut short a morning rally in technology and what would have been the second straight session of blue chip gains. ``Financial stocks and Microsoft (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news) did not do well and Wal-Mart's down,'' said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. ``We got a little present from (Federal Reserve Chairman) Alan Greenspan, and I guess we wanted a bigger one. Now we've got to concentrate on earnings again.'' Wal-Mart was off $2.56 at $48. Target Corp. [NYSE:TGT - news] fell $2.94 to $28.75, a 9 percent drop. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter dropped 25 cents to $69 after rallying early in the day despite reporting earnings well below Wall Street estimates. A gloomy earnings forecast also sent SBC Communications SBC down $6.75 to $46.56. Technology issues dropped as well. Microsoft was off $3.06 at $44.75 on reports the company plans to cut costs as it boost some salaries. Sun Microsystems dropped $1.63, or 5.7 percent, to $26.94. ``The stock market right now is jumping around based on worries about the economy and earnings,'' said Robert Christian, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust. ``I think we're in for a choppy period that's going to extend into next year.'' In its statement Tuesday, the Fed indicated it was shifting its focus to economic weakness, rather than inflation because of ``eroding consumer confidence'' and ``substantial shortfalls in sales and earnings.'' Todd Clark, head of listed trading at WR Hambrecht, said the market's negative reaction reflected disappointment by many on Wall Street who had been banking on an interest rate cut, as well as fears about where the economy is headed. The market views lower rates as necessary to stimulate the slowing economy and jump-start slumping corporate profits. ``The market got a little ahead of itself in expecting an interest rate cut right away,'' Clark said. ``We didn't get the cut but ... to go from saying there is a risk of inflation to a risk of recession is as aggressive as the Fed's going to get.'' Advancing issues and decliners traded nearly evenly on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.30 billion shares, compared with 1.15 million at the same point Monday. The Russell 2000 index fell 4.47 to 458.78. Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 2.4 percent. Germany's DAX index was up 1.4 percent, Britain's FT-SE 100 was up 0.8 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 1.2 percent. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (5673)	12/23/2000 4:08:15 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

U.S. Stocks Rally, Led by EMC; Nasdaq Has 5th-Biggest Surge from Bloomberg: By Robert Dieterich New York, Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied, led by EMC Corp. and Cisco Systems Inc., on optimism the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, sparking faster profit growth. The Nasdaq Composite Index surged to the fifth-largest gain in its 29-year history, led by Qualcomm Inc. and Sun Microsystems Inc. Of 81 technology stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, 73 gained. Stocks advanced ``on the recognition that the Fed is moving inexorably to lower interest rates,'' said Marshall Front, who manages $2.5 billion at Front Barnett Associates LLC in Chicago. Lower rates will spur growth in the economy and earnings. Front said he bought shares of EMC, Cisco, Intel Corp. and Microsoft Corp. last week. The Nasdaq, which touched a 21-month low Wednesday, climbed 176.90, or 7.6 percent, to 2517.02, extending yesterday's gain. The S&P 500 rose 31.09, or 2.4 percent, to 1305.95. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 148.27, or 1.4 percent, to 10,635.56, led by International Business Machines Corp. Nasdaq stocks now trade for 98 times recent profit, down from 401 times at their March 10 high. S&P 500 stocks trade for 25 times earnings. Some investors are betting the Nasdaq's decline, spurred by repeated warnings that sales and profits won't meet expectations in a slowing economy, has left many stocks inexpensive. `Buy Now' ``You want to be buying now,'' said Chris Guinther, manager of the $350 million One Group Small Cap Growth Fund. ``It is obvious to everyone that things are going to be bad in earnings,'' he said, and that is now reflected in stock prices. Still, the Nasdaq has now risen 5 percent or more in a day 14 times since its March 10 peak, and each time the rally has been fleeting. The index remains 38 percent lower for the year. ``There's a lot of people that are saying, `Is this the one that's going to stick?''' said Robert Leshman, who runs hedge fund Briar Partners LP. More than two stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Almost 1.1 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, 1.1 percent below the average for the past six Fridays. For the week, the Nasdaq fell 5.1 percent and the S&P 500 0.5 percent, while the Dow climbed 1.9 percent. U.S. stock markets are closed Monday for Christmas. Cisco Gains Cisco, the world's biggest computer-networking company, rose $2.63 to $41.50. The stock had fallen 29 percent from Dec. 11 through yesterday. Ciena Corp., which makes products used in fiber- optic networks, jumped $17.13 to $77, having dropped 49 percent over the same eight-day period. Microsoft advanced $3 to $46.44; it is down 60 percent this year. EMC surged $9 to $68.25, and Qualcomm gained $9.19 to $85. IBM gained $7.44 to $89. The biggest computer maker's shares fell 21 percent from Dec. 5 through yesterday amid speculation that the company will join other large computer companies in reducing its profit or sales forecast. Salomon Smith Barney analyst John Jones said such speculation is wrong. Retail sales to individual consumers are only a small part of IBM's business, he said in a note to clients. A slowdown in that area has been the main cause of lowered forecasts for other computer makers, he said. Ford's Fall Ford Motor Co. dropped $1.38 to $22.81. The automaker cut its first-quarter North American production plan by 17 percent from a year earlier because of slower demand. Ford also cut its fourth-quarter profit forecast by about 14 percent, saying weather and parts shortages trimmed output. The company had already reduced its outlook for the quarter, at the beginning of the month. General Motors Corp. fell $1.31 to $50.06. Litton Industries Inc. rose $15.31 to $77.94. The shipbuilder agreed to be acquired by defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. for $5.1 billion in cash and assumed debt, valuing the common shares at $80. Northrop fell $7.81 to $74.13. Tiffany & Co. gained $2.88 to $32. Goldman Sachs & Co. analyst Adrianne Shapira raised the jewelry retailer to ``recommended list'' from ``market performer,'' saying the stock is inexpensive given its growth prospects. International Paper, Alcoa Investors are becoming convinced the Fed will cut rates before its next meeting at the end of January, said Kevin Bannon, chief investment officer for BNY Asset Management, which has $65 billion in assets. Bannon said the Fed might make its next move a decrease of half a percentage point, not just a quarter point. Commodity producers, which are particularly sensitive to interest rates, rose. International Paper Co., the world's biggest paper maker, rose $2.69 to $42.25, while its smaller rival, Georgia Pacific Group, climbed $2.38 to $30.38. Alcoa Inc., the largest producer of aluminum, advanced $3.06 to $34.81, while Dow Chemical Co. gained $2.19 to $37.25. These stocks gained four out of five days this week on optimism about rates. International Paper rose 13 percent for the week, Georgia Pacific 17 percent, Alcoa 13 percent, and Dow 22 percent. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index rose 4.4 percent today and 7.6 percent this week, its biggest weekly rise since April 1999. 3Com Corp. rose 84 cents to $8.03. The maker of computer- networking equipment reported a fiscal second-quarter loss that was narrower than the reduced forecast it issued earlier this month. PG&E Corp. rose $1.81 to $20.06 and Edison International gained $1.31 to $16.25, after Standard & Poor's affirmed its ratings on the debt of the companies' two main electric utility subsidiaries, Pacific Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison. The utilities have incurred $8.1 billion in debt from surging power costs that they aren't allowed to pass on to retail customers. PG&E shares fell 33 percent from the beginning of December through yesterday, while Edison dropped 35 percent. Harmonic Falls Harmonic Inc. fell 84 cents to $5.97. The Internet-equipment maker said its fourth-quarter loss may be three times larger than analysts expected as customers such as AT&T Corp. cut spending. Harmonic has fallen 37 percent this week. OmniVision Technologies Inc. fell $5.84 to $3.66. The maker of semiconductors used in cameras and other imaging devices said it expects to lose 60 cents to 70 cents a share in the year ending April 30. It had expected profit of 38 cents to 40 cents a share. Merrill Lynch & Co. fell 44 cents to $63.56. The largest U.S. brokerage will cut jobs in its stock and bond research departments, the Wall Street Journal reported. The cuts come amid a stock market slump that is cutting into profits at securities firms. Merrill was the only firm to decline among the 13 members of Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index, which climbed 3 percent. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rose $5 to $98.81, and Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. gained $2.25 to $74.25. SuperGen Slides SuperGen Inc. slid $3.50 to $12.88, giving it a 38 percent decline since Monday. The drugmaker said its chief financial officer and head of commercial operations both will resign in 2001, bringing to four the number of top executives who have quit this year. Prudential Vector Healthcare Group analyst Peter Drake cut the stock to ``sell'' from ``hold.'' ``We find it highly suspect for these managers to leave'' just before the company submits its lead product for regulatory approval, Drake wrote in a note to clients. The Nasdaq's rally may have been helped today by a trailing off in selling done to book tax losses before the end of the year. Tax-loss selling helped limit the Nasdaq's gains yesterday, investors said, as traders tried to get things done well ahead of the holiday weekend and the quiet period between Christmas and New Year's. The Nasdaq also got a boost today because no major technology company said it would miss its sales or profit forecast. ``We didn't have any more bad news today,'' said Guinther of the One Group Small Cap Growth Fund. Best Regards, J.T.