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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (36814)	12/19/2000 8:56:21 PM
From: Joshua Corbin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

OT More TMF For a $5000 investor, commissions would average less than 1% of the portfolio value. In ETrade money, that's $59.80 vs.$14.95 for an ETF. That compounds into money over time. Plus taxes taking a bite of your gains that isn't compounding. Mechanical Scenario:* Let's say I have $5,000 in ETrade. I buy my four stocks. $5000-$59.80 = $ 4940.20 One year passes and both market and F4 go up 9% Balance= $5384.82 Then comes switcheroo time. First I pay taxes: $ 444.62 28% = 124.49 Balance= $5260.33 Then I pay more commissions: $5260.33-$59.80 =$5200.53 So I'm up 4.01% going into the second inning. Index scenario: If I bought SPY at today's close of $130.0313, I'd have 38 shares ($4941.19 value) plus $46.86 for a total value of $4985.05 One year passes and both market and F4 go up 9% Typically SPY under-performs by .2%, so $4941.19 + 8.8% = $5376.01 That $46.16 collects 5% money market, so $46.16 + 5% = $48.47 Total balance (5376.01+48.47) = $5424.48 Now I pay taxes: 2.31 .28 = $0.65 Balance=$5423.83 So I'm up 8.48% going into the second inning. We need more investors crusading for such models of public disclosure and accurate accounting.* I agree totally. This creates a weird situation for TMF, of course. They set themselves up as anti-gurus, complete with some of the best-written disclaimers I've ever seen. Yet people want gurus anyway and choose not to do their own homework. Of course, if you take the "Don't Mimic Us" claim literally, the Foolish Four is pointless since nobody is supposed to use it. Thing is that Rule Breaker/Rule Maker is simply their version of the value/growth dichotomy. Over time, I expect both to do fine. [I said that "Part of the problem was that TMF borrowed the mutual funds' trick of boasting high performance over statistically insignificant time periods."] Boasting? Please provide even the smallest evidence of that. Remember this? images.amazon.com How about: "In sixteen months of directing The Motley Fool on America Online, the most active online financial site on the planet, David and Tom Gardner have managed a real-money portfolio that has, to date, risen more than 140%. What was $50,000 on August 4, 1994, has grown into over $120,000 today." (If the intent is to "minimize commission and opportunity costs" for the long term, why does this matter?) And "Since going on-line in August 1994 with their sassy and savvy Web site, the Motley Fool, the Gardner brothers have been helping the on-line investor crush the market averages by dozens of percentage points." amazon.com And comparing that portfolio with mutual funds "tricks" is unfounded. My point was the use of short-term performance over statistically insignificant time periods. Don't get me wrong. I like The Motley Fool. The good outweighs the bad. Still, they were sending mixed signals.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (36814)	12/19/2000 9:25:28 PM
From: Seldom_Blue	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

This news item caused SEBL to drop 19% today. Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Brent Thill said that while Siebel remains the gorilla in the software for customer relationship management, or CRM, growth in core U.S. enterprise accounts is slowing more than most had expected. Growth in U.S. enterprise was about 40 percent year-over-year and 15 percent sequentially, down from 60 percent year-over-year growth and 20 percent sequential growth in 1999. The company's new primary growth engines are in mid-market and international sales, and should more than make up for losses in the company's core domestic business with large enterprises, Thill said. "It appears U.S. enterprise accounts are digesting the first wave of major CRM applications, leaving the door open for (Siebel) and other vendors to round out the CRM vision with additional applications," Thill said, adding that the company's spring product release could provide the next catalyst. Thill said the company's unequaled success in past years has had investors asking whether its "torrid growth" can continue, and noted that the company has said it believes the current perception of an economic slowdown is analogous to the widespread Y2K fears: more hype than reality. "While no company is completely insulated from a total economic meltdown, we believe (Siebel) would hold up better than most because... (it) has assembled the broadest platform of products enabling ... long-term customer relationships.." Thill said. SEBL still sports a high PE. Would you say this slowing growth may indicate SEBL's tornado is subsiding a bit? The effect of corporate spending slowdown should be very pronounced on SEBL, who depends on these corporations having the money to buy. Seldom Blue