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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (49403)	12/19/2000 8:22:24 PM
From: sammaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

dollar and us market heading in wrong direction... last time market crashed apr/may the dollar went up so foreigners not hurt as bad.. now they may panic and sell.... also if US cuts rates then less money flows to US bonds therefore less liquidity....

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (49403)	12/19/2000 8:32:42 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

If the Banks (as evidenced ^BKX) doesn't collapse and moves to new highs after the fed starts easing, would that cause you to alter your bearish stance. I agree the financial system is under a lot of stress but I have too much resspect for Alan Greenspan and keep thinking that if anyone can pull this off,9(avoid the Japan deflation scenario)he can. One difference between Japan' capital investment boom and the US is that Japn's was focused on old economy industries and real estate whereas the US investment boom has focused on high tech spending where excess capacity can be eliminated quickly. I am not saying that we will return to the 1000 % returns of tech stocks but more moderate returns in the stock market could be achievable. I guess I am thinking a deeper than usual cyclical bear as opposed to a secular bear. Thanks Anindo Anindo

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (49403)	12/19/2000 9:13:15 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I don't care no rummy Nasdung A/D line. -g- Those turds have been going down the toilet for YEARS. They should continue. Listed stocks are what will lead the economy. -ng- Of course the main indices could continue down for a time while the A/D rises. The inverse of the year and a half A/D fall while the indices continued to rise. Bear periods, though sometimes just as steep as the bulls, usually last 1/2 or less as long as the bullish periods. I would say that therefore you should expect the forewarning lag of the A/D line to be 1/2 as long. That would be around 9 months. March + 9 months = ?? stockcharts.com Of course nothing ever works out exactly as I figure it to- the length of this downturn could be longer than average <g>