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To: William Hunt who wrote (123390)12/19/2000 9:53:54 PM
From: Tony Viola  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 186894
 
Bill, another reason I think Greenspan's lost it is his speech writing, or speech approving ability. Every part of the statement below is negative, whether he's talking about inflation, which is still a risk, he says, or the fact that a move may be made in the lowering of rates direction. This guy is supposed to be working for the general good of the country and the world. He can't send one iota of hope any more, except to the bears. Of course, in person or on TV, he's even more thrilling. I read CNBC initially interpreted his speech as hawkish, naturally, and they then spread the good joy everywhere, sending stocks down.

The guy is, what, 73? How many corporations would keep a CEO around that long. How about Reuben? -Tony

The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to maintain the
existing stance of monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate
at 6 -1/2 percent.

The drag on demand and profits from rising energy costs, as well as eroding
consumer confidence, reports of substantial shortfalls in sales and earnings, and
stress in some segments of the financial markets suggest that economic growth may
be slowing further. While some inflation risks persist, they are diminished by
the more moderate pace of economic activity and by the absence of any indication
that longer-term inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will
continue to monitor closely the evolving economic situation.

Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable
economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee
consequently believes that the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that
may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.



To: William Hunt who wrote (123390)12/20/2000 8:07:29 AM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
William, RE: The response on OPEC is that if Oil prices fall OPEC will cut the supply to the market thus keeping oil prices high.

OPEC has never shown such discipline in its entire history. In all probability, they won't this time either. In addition, the economics of cartels would argue that the probability of this happening is very, very low.

As stated above Greenspan has an effect on capital in the marketplace by controlling liquidity . As per CNBC the liquidity in the marketplace has dropped to the level in 1998 when we had our last world slowdown . If he does not prime the pump and lower rates productivity will continue to fall ---I believed we were at 3.4%for November which is below the inflation rate .

You make a key assumption there that liquidity is directly correlated to productivity. I don't buy that assumption.