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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan s. who wrote (25553)	12/19/2000 10:50:00 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 49816

it would not surprise me to see the upper teens (1900 or so) on the naz over the next several weeks. I thought we had a two year capitulation on the QQQ today. The market has crushed most bullish theories like, Labor day rally, End of mutual fund selling rally, Bush rally, Fed rally, and Santa Clause Rally. Now, I'm ready for the Jack Hartmann's portfolio rally. <gg> Don't be crushing that Stan. <gg> Jack

To: stan s. who wrote (25553)	12/20/2000 10:20:24 AM
From: stan s.	Respond to of 49816

some clarification on where I think the NASDAQ may be headed in the next several weeks...i.e., the potential for a trip to 1900+. chart and comments I made at WSM last evening, wallstreetmonitor.com December 19...you could pretty much just read yesterday's comment to get my overall impression. Weakness reins but no capitulation and not enough fear yet. Now what? The fed threw the markets a bone and even though it was rejected today I suspect the NASDAQ will stage a moderate rally this week, perhaps tomorrow. I would rather see the techs plummet on high volume with a dramatic rise in the VIX (volatility, fear index) to 36+ at a minimum but I probably won't get that. It's more likely that the naz continues to stage weak, unsustainable rallies that get sold into. I would expect that pattern to last for several weeks. As for the chart...I simply drew in some meaningless lines on the daily, showing support breaks etc....blah, blah, blah. The real story though goes back to mid-summer of '98. That break out point is where the naz is headed unless it puts the brakes on this slide and fast. That break out point is in the upper 1900's to 2000 mark. The naz may not get there quickly...but that's where it goes if a mental adjustment isn't made and a certain acceptance of this new 'paradigm' isn't forthcoming', that is--- reduced year over year earnings and a realization that the 'easy money' is done and gone, for the foreseeable future. Seems a little premature to speak of resistance here...but just for the hell of it, call it the gap down point from 12/14 at 2728. It failed it once...let's see how long before the naz gets another shot at it.