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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (23007)	12/20/2000 8:03:08 AM
From: combjelly	Respond to of 275872

"AMD has large inventories of unsold processors" Durons I believe. And Intel has been accumulating processors, likely slower PIIIs and low end Celerons, for the past few quarters. The chances of the Durons being sold, especially to Asia, when the integrated chipsets are available is high. Can Intel say the same for their stockpiled keyfobs? " And their 0.13u process will be well behind Intel's and based on technology which they'll no doubt have trouble implementing" Let's make the assumption that Intel is able to pull off the transition to copper flawlessly, even though everybody else has had production delays because of copper problems. But heck, Intel is really good at process technology and they might be able to do that. Let's also assume that AMD screws over their move to SOI, we all know how poor AMD is at process control. So what happens? By the end of 2001, AMD is at 1.7GHz with their pony chips on 0.18 micron, and are looking to field their new pony chips on their 0.13 micron bulk Si process. The ClawHammer has been delayed because the #$&! SOI just isn't working out. Intel has Tulatins on 0.13 micron and they have a speed of, what?, 1.5GHz? The P4 has been pushed to 2GHz on 0.18 micron (in light of the 1.3GHz P4, apparently not an easy task), and are starting to transition to the 0.13 micron process. Now just normal scaling you would expect the ponies to reach 2.2GHz (assuming that 1.7GHz is all for .18 micron), and the P4 to reach 2.6GHz, but we'll say that the P4 can reach to 3GHz because Intel is able to get a lot out of their new process, not that big of a stretch. Because AMD's bulk Si process is just an extension of their present process, with current Leff being at 0.09 micron (maybe less by now), it may be less of an extension than it might be otherwise, I would expect AMD to reach that 2.2GHz long before Intel can push to 3GHz in a process with as many new aspects as 860 brings to the table. But even if they top out in the same quarter, the frequency ratios between the two processors will be roughly where they are now. And if AMD can get their SOI process under control before the P4 reaches 3GHz, well then things look even worse for Intel...

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (23007)	12/20/2000 9:04:37 AM
From: Michael Ohlendorf	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

I think, they will have several hundred thousands of onsold Durons left in inventory after Q4 is over. Who else shares my opinion. Or will it even be more (close to 1Mio unsold Durons in stock maybe)?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (23007)	12/20/2000 1:30:17 PM
From: Goutam	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

*Re: < Sure, Darbes. AMD has large inventories of unsold processors* >** AMD has large inventories, and Intel doesn't? Can you collaborate your assertion with any factual data? Here is some data to help you out - AMD INTEL \|--------------------------------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| \|Q3'99\|Q4,99\| Q1'00\|Q2'00 \|Q3'00 \|\|Q3'99 \|Q4'99 \|Q1'00 \|Q2'00 \|Q3'00 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Net Sales \|$662 \| $969\|$1,092\|$1,170\|$1,207\|\|$7,328 \|$8,212 \|$8,021 \|$8,300 \|$8,731 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Inventory \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| Total \| \|$198 \|$205 \|$256 \|$291 \|\|$991 \|$1,478 \|$1,562 \|$1,607 \|$1,936 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Inventory \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| Finished \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| Goods \| \| \| \| \| \|\|$583 \|$540 \|$532 \|$512 \|$676 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Inventory \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| Work in \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| Process \| \| \| \| \| \|\|$204 \|$755 \|$802 \|$863 \|$926 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Inventory \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| Raw \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| materials \| \| \| \| \| \|\|$204 \|$183 \|$228 \|$232 \|$334 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| It seems both companies have same Inventory Total to Net sales ratio. While you are at it, look at Intel's accounts payable - it's at about 80% of net sales. Does it tell you any thing? AMD INTEL \|--------------------------------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| \|Q3'99\|Q4,99\| Q1'00\|Q2'00 \|Q3'00 \|\|Q3'99 \|Q4'99 \|Q1'00 \|Q2'00 \|Q3'00 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Net Sales \|$662 \| $969\|$1,092\|$1,170\|$1,207\|\|$7,328 \|$8,212 \|$8,021 \|$8,300 \|$8,731 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Accounts \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| Receivable\| \|$430 \|$408 \|$533 \|$688 \|\|$3,494 \|$3,700 \|$3,706 \|$4,333 \|$4,574 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Accounts \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| payable \| \|$387 \|$317 \|$353 \|$387 \|\|$4,459 \|$4,565 \|$4,638 \|$5,602 \|$6,087 \| ----------\|-----\|-----\|------\|------\|------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| Capital \| \| \| \| \| \|\| \| \| \| \| \| Additions \|$146 \| $126\|$129 \|$161 \|$249 \|\|$982 \|$980 \|$1,074 \|$1,252 \|$1,925 \| \|--------------------------------\|\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\|-------\| This link (Intel Capital shadow portfolio) may provide you further insight into how bad it's going to be for Intel this, and the next few quarters - siliconinvestor.com goutama