** Re: The Suzanne Jovin Murder -- Part 2: Analysis of the Evidence **
Note: The following is a summary I have compiled in an attempt to inform new readers of the events surrounding the murder of Suzanne Jovin. I do not claim to be a news reporter nor do I claim to be totally objective, although I have tried to support my opinions with fact as often as possible. My opinions are also solely my own and not necessarily representative of those of anyone else posting messages here. If you are not a Silicon Investor member and wish to comment, either publicly or privately, please e-mail me at jmitchel@optonline.net.
- Jeff
In part 1, we saw how the New Haven Police swiftly leaked Professor Van de Velde’s name to the press as a suspect despite not having any evidence whatsoever that linked him to the crime. Was this rush to judgment based on a calculated decision by the police to name someone, anyone, to keep Yale, the media, and the Jovins hopeful and pacified, or was it just horrible police work followed by a cover-up?
Before beginning, it is important to point out that any number of scenarios is possible. To discuss them all would take forever. Instead, the idea is to take key facts and from them make judgments about not what is possible, but probable. In part 2, we’ll use what little evidence we have to logically determine a probable scenario for what really might have happened to Jovin that fateful night.
First, we need to figure out how much time we need to account for in our scenario. Suzanne Jovin was last seen alive between 9:25-9:30, approximately 1.9 miles away from where she was found stabbed, which would have been sometime prior to the 911 call at 9:55. Thus, any murder scenario must, at most, be less than 30 minutes long.
Not knowing how long Jovin continued to walk unnoticed nor how long she lay at the spot where she was eventually found, the minimum time we must allow would be the time it must have taken at that hour to drive the entire route. In an attempt to determine an approximation of this, I was able to complete the ride in 8 minutes and 45 seconds (To be precise, I drove on Monday, December 13, 1999, between 3:30-4:00pm in moderate traffic. I began at Phelps Gate and traveled north on College Street, later called Prospect Street, all the way to East Rock Road where I took a right and went one block to the far corner of Edgewood.) Keeping in mind that I don’t know exactly what route the killers may have taken on that fateful night (so I am assuming the most direct one, which I took), nor what the traffic was like on that fateful night (my guess is moderate to heavy since the Yale-Princeton hockey game would have been letting out around 9:30pm onto Prospect Street), and considering there are ten stoplights along the way, my best estimate for the least time needed for any likely murder scenario would be 10 minutes.
Second, we need to determine how Jovin got from Phelps Gate to the crime scene, the corner of Edgehill and East Rock Road. At a brisk 3 miles per hour walking pace, 1.9 miles would be covered in 38 minutes. This is clearly outside the maximum 30 minutes in which Jovin had to have arrived at the crime scene and it doesn't even take into account stoppage time at the numerous downtown intersections. It's possible Jovin could have jogged there, but given 1) it was at least 9:25pm, 2) she was wearing hiking boots, jeans, and a fleece pullover, and 3) she had just told someone how tired she was, it’s most probable that Jovin arrived at her destination with the aid of a car.
Third, was Jovin murdered a) outside where she was found, b) outside elsewhere and transported by car to where she was found, or c) in a car and transported to where she was found. The key here is the blood, or lack thereof, found at the scene. One would assume 17 stab wounds to the head and neck would produce an abundance of blood. However, the two people I talked to who were at the crime scene that night said while there was much talk about the severity of the neck wound, they don’t recall seeing blood splashed about. One of them said she thought Jovin had fainted, not been savagely murdered. The New Haven Register wrote: "there reportedly were no traces of blood between where she lay and the street." This is not to say the entire crime scene was bloodless. Indeed, Jovin’s clothes were soaked with blood and there was blood underneath her. However, there are no reports of any blood spattering, which one would expect if she were stabbed outside where she was found.
Certainly if Jovin were fleeing from an attacker with all those stab wounds there would be blood spattering, if not a noticeable trail of blood. The only other possible scenario that might account for Jovin being killed outside is if she were felled exactly where she was found. As there were no reported defensive wounds and as all the blows apparently came from behind, at first glance it seems possible she could have been taken by surprise from behind. However, it does not seem probable someone who had, at best, extricated themselves from a bad situation or, at worst, just escaped from an abduction, would not only walk casually away but also be totally unaware they were being pursued to the point they couldn’t even put up a hand in defense, even instinctively.
Furthermore, if Jovin were knocked unconscious, either by a blow to the head (although there are no reports of a massive head wound) or the first or second stab, it’s hard to imagine another 15-17 (more) knife wounds being inflicted to a lifeless body. Had Jovin been tackled instead of felled by a knife wound, the likely result would have been scraped hands, grass stains, or bruises on her back, none of which have ever been reported; another likely result would have been an indentation in the ground from one or two bodies falling, something apparently never observed. And even if we are still willing to go this far, it’s also hard to believe that not a single stab would have produced any spatter given the probable amount of blood loss, the force needed to penetrate a skull, and even the blood that might have sprayed from the knife. Finally, where is there evidence a second person may have been there at all, i.e. bloody footprints, smeared blood, trampled or dug up grass, etc.? Given all the above, I find any sort of outdoor murder scenario at the site Jovin was found, scenario "a" above, quite improbable.
It’s possible Jovin were killed outside elsewhere and then transported to where she was found by car, but, again, I don’t find that probable. Common sense makes it hard to envision why a murderer would want to load a bloody victim into their car, thus contaminating it and forever linking them to the crime. The only remote rationale I can think of is that the killer might not want the body to ever be found. Obviously this does not apply here making scenario "b" above also quite improbable.
Therefore it appears logical to conclude Jovin was most probably killed in a car, scenario "c" above. Indeed her body position is consistent with someone who may have been pushed or pulled from a car: she was lying on her stomach, feet in the road, body on the grassy area between the road and the sidewalk. Taking it one step further, it’s as if someone had taken a right turn off Prospect Street onto East Rock Road on the way to the next major cross street, Whitney Avenue, and decided to pull over somewhere in the middle of that neighborhood, which was right after they passed the only other intersection, Edgehill. This location would also have shielded them from anyone walking along Edgehill, a wide and well-lit street, yet kept them on the side of two houses on either side which both faced Edgehill as opposed to being in front of two houses facing East Rock had they gone a bit further. Moreover, tall bushes shielded the side view of at least one of the corner houses.
If Jovin were indeed killed in a car, as appears probable, the next obvious question is how she ended up in a car. While the natural temptation here is to start speculating whether or not Jovin was forced into the car and thus whether she might have known her killer, I posit that at this point it’s much more relevant to discuss how someone might be murdered in a car and then work backwards. Was their likely a) only one person in the car, or b) more than one person in the car?
There are two elements to consider in any murdered in a car theory: psychological and physical. From a psychological point of view, as there were no defensive wounds on Jovin, is it more likely someone would be surprised and/or overwhelmed by a driver (indicating scenario "a" above would be more likely), or by another passenger (indicating scenario "b")? From a physical perspective, are the wounds consistent with those a driver might make (scenario "a"), or perhaps by someone sitting elsewhere (scenario "b")?
From a psychological point of view: imagine yourself sitting in the front passenger seat of a car. What circumstances might allow someone only a few feet to your left to be able to pull out a knife and either surprise or totally overwhelm you to the point you weren’t even able to so much as put up a hand in defense? Isn’t is highly likely that if you sensed real trouble (i.e. if you had been forced into the car by someone you didn’t know, or had gotten into a heated discussion with someone you did know) you would either have tried to flee when the car stopped, or at the very least been in a high state of mental alert for trouble? Now imagine yourself sitting in the back seat with one or more people, at least one of which you know has a knife at the ready. I would venture to say most people would feel much more helpless and thus less likely to resist an attacker if the attacker had friends in close proximity, not to mention the likelihood they might already be under physical restraint.
From a physical perspective: pretend you are in the driver’s seat of a car with a passenger in the seat beside you. Next, twist your body to the right try to stab someone in only the head and neck 17 times without missing at least once and hitting them elsewhere, such as the shoulder or arm. Be sure to take into consideration the steering wheel which would severely restrict your movement, and perhaps even seat belts. At the very least we can assume this would be quite challenging to do and near impossible to do while driving. Now imagine if either that person were sitting strapped into the seat in front of you or perhaps a friend of yours sitting with you in back was restraining them, say by pinning their arms behind their back while pushing them face down toward you on the seat or floor. I would venture to say the latter scenario is far more likely to produce the wounds found on Jovin. Therefore, given both psychological and physical considerations, it is much more probable the car in which Jovin were killed had more than one other person in it.
If there were indeed more than one other person in the car in which Jovin were killed, it is much more likely her death resulted from a random act of violence. More on this later. For now, let us still consider the single person theory since although it is much less probable it is still possible and thus merits further discussion, especially given that many people are under the illusion if forced at knife point to get into a car, even by a group of people, they would likely either scream or flee rather than freeze and go into a mild state of shock as most victims actually report. Since it’s very hard to envision an individual saying "I have a knife. Get in the car and don’t move while I run over to the driver’s side," I think it safe to conclude any single person theory most likely implies the victim knew the eventual attacker and thus got into the car willingly and unaware of any impending danger.
If we assume for sake of argument Jovin knew her killer, this raises three possibilities: a) he stalked her, b) she ran into him unexpectedly, or c) she planned to meet him that night. Regardless of whether someone had followed Jovin home to her Park Street apartment, or lay in wait in their car outside it, in order to have followed her through locked gates, between buildings, and across courtyards to Phelps Gate they'd have to have been on foot, thus leaving their car on or near Jovin's apartment on Park Street. Given our most probable scenario above that a car had to have been used, a stalking scenario not involving a car is quite unlikely. Sure, it's possible the stalker never budged from his car on Park Street, Jovin returned home, and then he lured her into his car, but there's no evidence Jovin made it back to her apartment, planned to go right back, or was even heading in that direction. It’s also possible the stalker decided to drive and lay in wait on College Street, but why not strike on Park Street? How would the killer not only know where Jovin were going, but also that she was not going to retrace her steps and therefore never be on College Street? Therefore, while theoretically possible, a stalking scenario, "a" above, does not appear probable.
As for scenario "b", that Jovin ran into her killer unexpectedly, what are the odds that a friend you meet by chance carries a knife? What are the odds you will willingly get in their car or even need to be driven somewhere in the first place? What are the odds that a chance meeting with a friend would blow up into murder in less than a half hour? Very low on all counts, and even lower when you consider all of these events would have had to occur.
Therefore, in order for the single person theory to still have any merit we need to determine the likelihood Jovin had planned to meet anyone at all the night she was murdered. Recall between 8:45pm and 9:20pm that night she was specifically asked by two individuals if she had plans, and in one instance she said she hoped to do some school work and in the other she said she was tired and looking forward to sleeping. As Jovin reportedly had no backpack nor was carrying any school books, whether she had planned to work or sleep one would expect that after dropping off the keys to the borrowed car she would have turned around and taken the same convenient and direct route back home. She didn’t. Instead, she continued through Phelps Gate and took a left, heading north on College Street, without crossing to the other side.
Had Jovin planned to be picked up by someone it is most likely she'd have gotten picked up at home or in front of Phelps Gate. Instead, she was last seen walking away from Phelps Gate, not standing around, somewhere prior to the next cross street, Elm Street. Had Jovin still planned to be picked up, the closest, most likely spot would have been near the corner of College and Elm. However, as Elm is a one-way flowing east, and as the westerly side of the intersection is prone to heavy traffic where there is no place to park or conveniently pull over within a few hundred feet prior to it, it’s much more likely Jovin would have been at any of the other three corners had she intended to meet someone for a ride. In addition, Jovin’s last known location also increases the likelihood she may have been taking a roundabout route home via a left, west, onto Elm.
However, in order to keep our "she knew her killer" theory alive we will conveniently ignore the above and speculate perhaps she was on her way to a secret rendezvous. This is certainly an intriguing thought, but who exactly does one meet secretly? A lover perhaps? As Jovin kept a diary, had a sister she trusted, had e-mail, had a steady boyfriend, and none of the 150 or so people the New Haven police claim to have questioned said they had any hint Jovin had a secret romantic relationship, the odds of this seem remote. So, if she wasn't "seeing" someone, who else might she have wanted to meet secretly? All I can think of is a drug dealer, but there is no evidence whatsoever she ever did drugs.
Lastly, let’s go all the way out on a limb and say regardless of all evidence that points directly to the contrary, Jovin somehow had indeed scheduled a secret meeting with someone the night she was killed. In fact, let’s just ignore everything above we’ve concluded as probable and assume her counterpart had planned the perfect murder. But, wait a second. How can the killer be absolutely assured Jovin kept their meeting secret? Even if Jovin says she didn't tell anyone, maybe she wrote his name down on a scrap of paper, wrote it in her diary, or just plain lied to him. After all, unless this was a routine request, it’s reasonable to assume Jovin would have been highly suspicious of such a meeting. Also, how can the killer be sure no one saw his car parked where she might have last been seen, or perhaps saw her get into it, or perhaps saw her riding in it or arguing, etc.? How can he be sure when he stops the car in a residential neighborhood no one is looking out the window or walking in the shadows, or about to drive by, etc.? Heaven forbid the killer himself actually lives in the area making him even more likely to be identified! These are all big "gotchas".
So if Jovin wasn’t retracing her steps back to her apartment, wasn’t carrying anything to indicate she planned to do schoolwork, and wasn’t planning on meeting anyone, where was she going? As Jovin was seen prior to the intersection of Elm and College, it’s hard to speculate. If I were told she was planning to take a left turn on Elm I might speculate she was either taking a roundabout route home or perhaps heading to Durfee’s Sweet Shop, a popular place for Yalies to grab a bite to eat. Although the shop is accessible from within the Old Campus (via Welch Hall) the fastest way there from Phelps would probably have been to go to the front entrance on Elm (I say "probably" because of distance and/or that I don’t think Jovin’s keycard would work on a Freshman doorway since she was a Senior). To go out on a limb again, let’s assume the rumors the two reporters told me they heard about Jovin are true, that she had a checkbook on her and a Coke can with her fingerprints was lying nearby. Let’s also toss in a copy of the New Journal, a Yale publication that Van de Velde told me the police waved at him during an interrogation. Might Jovin have actually wandered into Durfee’s, bought a can of Coke (which they do sell), and picked up a New Journal on the way in or out (although I’m not sure if Durfee’s would have been a drop-off point for the publication, although Phelps Gate surely would have)? Since she only had a crumpled up dollar bill in her pocket (no change was reported), might she have paid by check? It’s an intriguing thought but too highly speculative to be considered reasonable at this point. I would have to assume it would have been crowded inside on a warm night and therefore somewhat likely someone would have remembered seeing her there. Also, she had just been hosting a pizza dinner that ended around 8:30pm so I doubt she’d be hungry again less than an hour later, although it is conceivable she might have been thirsty.
Exploring other alternatives, in reviewing the Vanity Fair article on the subject I note this line that might be a big clue: "Most of Jovin's friends were partying that night…" Might Jovin have been going to one of those parties to see if any of her friends were there? After all, it was a Friday night and classes had just ended for the semester that day so there were numerous parties to celebrate it, and in that general direction. She was also seen carrying a single sheet of 8 ½ by 11 paper by fellow student Peter Stein just prior to returning the car keys at Phelps Gate. Might that piece of paper have been a party flier she had picked up on her journey? While there is no hard evidence to suggest such a scenario, it does conveniently explain many things. True, Jovin did tell people she had no plans that night and was tired, but perhaps she rationalized as such because rather than definitely knowing she was going to stay at a particular party she planned to simply pop in on one or more or them for a few minutes and take it from there… and really was tired, but physically not mentally, and was just looking to unwind after a long day. And, true, she had just come from a pizza party, but it’s perhaps relevant to note that even though she did stop back at her apartment before heading out again, she never did change out of her "party" clothes.
(continued...) |
