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To: abuelita who wrote (34361)	12/20/2000 12:53:39 AM
From: robwin	Respond to of 35685

Hi Rose, I have to echo the sentiment that I have come to realize that the other Mod porchers really do not give much credence to anything Volt says..he really has become a caricature with all the predictions that have come to naught...

To: abuelita who wrote (34361)	12/20/2000 10:43:50 PM
From: jambo-bwana	Respond to of 35685

Hi Rose - good to hear from you Jambo, how do you read the sky? Prognostication is not my greatest strength, Rose - but that has never stopped me from giving it a whirl -g- I posted on the mod-thread some time back that Marty Zweig whose service I used to subscribe to in the early 80s used to repeat ad nauseum: "Don't fight the Fed" and "Don't fight the tape". It was the Fed's move to tighten that caused me to lighten up on positions before the sell-off got underway - though I hasten to add that this decline has taken its toll on my portfolio. We now are in a position where the Fed is apparently getting ready to ease so fighting the Fed seems less of a factor. However the tape looks dreadful! If one wants to buy in a falling market one has to look for signs of capitulation before doing so. If not, one is trying to catch a falling knife. IMO, we have not seen capitulation occur as yet - though capitulation is not necessarily a prerequisite for a firm bottom. However absent capitulation, I would rather wait for the market to show some signs of stabilizing before I look to add to my positions. The encouraging thing is that with the naz down as much as it is - close to 60% off its highs - the likelihood is that we are close to a bottom. Tax loss selling which should have abated by now may continue for longer than usual through the end of the month. The more important issue is whether any rally from these levels will be sustainable. I do not know the answer to that - and we shall have to see what happens. I have seen varying statistics as to the length of the average bear market - one that I saw recently was 18 months in duration. If that is true, then we could see this bear market extend to the latter part of next year - assuming that it commenced in March 2000. My gut feeling is that unless we are already in a recession, we should see the end of this bear market well before then. I do not know your personal circumstances but for my part I have a fairly diversified portfolio including a hefty percentage in bonds and cash. I can ride this out for quite a while. I remain confident that, in time, with the type of stocks that I own my portfolio will see a restoration in valuations down the line. I am not sure that this has been responsive to your question. Best wishes