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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: geoffrey Wren who wrote (9847)	12/20/2000 7:32:13 AM
From: RAT	Respond to of 12823

Let me start by saying that I think you are right - a thicker client at the home works better for many applications including interactive television, VOD etc. I just don't see many of the cable companies throwing out the DCT 2000's any time soon. It is taking them how long to get rid of legacy plant? 1. That the movie guys will realize that they just have to take their chances on pirating. Actually, they don't. We the consumers are annoyed but they really don't, at least not yet, not for video. At 2.5 gig per movie, only the techiest of people are going to go around hacking TiVo's to install ethernet cards and bigger hard drives to steal the MPEG stream, compress them into 760 Meg files and press on a CD R. It does happen, but I don't think often enough. They won't step in the way until a much bigger number of us have fast internet connections, unlimited storage and the tools to steal are easier to use (a la napster - and I know about freenet / filetopia and gnutella). The movie guys won't do it - they want no risk and a real DRM system in place. 2. I don't think people need or want to keep a large cache of video. Music you listen to 10 times before you stop replaying. Video, once, maybe twice. Do you have small kids? In bad weather - I might get to hear the same movie twice in a day. We have to keep a stock pile of these things. For adults, probably a true statement except for some old standbys. In today's world, customer choice = customer satisfaction. Less choice, less satisfaction. 5. My main point is that I think it will cost cable operators a lot of money... And I don't think that they are willing to pay for it. They would rather let DBS try it - if it works, the follow relatively quickly and at a lower cost of entry. If it doesn't work, they don't do it. That is their history. If they lost 10% of the marketplace but saved 40% on the cost of upgrading, I don't think they care. 6. I predict you will see AOL and Time Warner go for something like this in the near future. If I remember right - and I can't find the information - I believe that an upcoming version of AOLTV includes PVR functionality. It has a hard disk, so could easily be used for that. Also, Cablevision I believe is considering using the Playstation II for its STB - which may be the best plan of all. Absolutely something that consumers are willing to pay for, has its own inherent capabilities and cablevision could leverage the great graphics and sound of the PSII to provide some cool services. Built in DVD player so consumers don't have to make a DVD vs. PVR choice, they get it all. Xbox from MSFT will be a wildcard, but they have to get the thing out in time. So the summary - a storage device or smarter box in the home would be ideal, but I don't see too many of the cable companies stepping forward to spend money on the front end. It just isn't in their nature.