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To: Mike Buckley who wrote (36829)12/20/2000 1:44:16 AM
From: Seldom_Blue  Respond to of 54805
 
Thanks Mike.

Just to clarify my previous post: I think SEBL is a great company and they offer a great product. I am just very bearish on the economy. In my business I see signs of a very serious slowdown in corporate IT spending. I also have many friends who own a variety of businesses. They have all reported slower sales, mostly because of the reverse wealth effect and slower corporate spending.

I just do not see many companies that can escape unharmed (or keep up the torrid growth) in this kind of environment.

Seldom Blue



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (36829)12/20/2000 10:07:25 AM
From: johndelvecchio  Respond to of 54805
 
First, unlike many other companies, Siebel witnessed much faster growth in international regions, particularly Europe, than in the U.S. Last quarter it was over 350% compared with about 80% in the U.S.

Thill said the company's unequaled success in past years has had investors asking whether its "torrid growth" can continue, and noted that the company has said it believes the current perception of an economic slowdown is analogous to the widespread Y2K fears: more hype than reality.

It's only 10 a.m. so that day is still young, but that's the dumbest thing I have heard today. Anyone who thinks that a company can grow 100% forever is not very intelligent. Of course it cannot continue. Whether it continues is really meaningless. What's important is how the company transitions out of the torrid growth phase. I think two things are important.
First is to expand profit margins. Siebel has room to expand its profit margins.
Second is to find additional growth opportunity. The fact that the company is moving to the mid-market and international and away from a slowing U.S. sounds pretty great to me! I must be missing something. Siebel has already proven that it can sell to the mid-market profitably. And, international is growing rapidly. Wireless too. So, what am I missing?