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Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (17336)	12/20/2000 5:36:16 AM
From: avanti77	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19374

Very thoughtful commentary Terry - thanks for sharing your thoughts. (I know most of the acronyms now, but your "YMMV" is a new one to me. What's it translate to?) Donna

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (17336)	12/20/2000 7:44:39 AM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19374

T I fully agree with your AG comments. I would like to point out the cause of this latest economic down turn, high-energy prices. People sometimes fail to understand that energy in the form of higher gasoline prices effect freight costs which in turn raises the price of a delivered product to the end consumer. Every piece of our economy depends on and is actually enslaved to the price of energy. The only solution to inflation and recession is a drop in the price of a barrel of oil. The past two years our federal government has through executive order choked off the flow of domestic oil by shutting down U.S. oil rigs and limiting exploration. This current administration cut our own production by 33% causing this country to rely on foreign oil thus increasing the demand overseas and causing the price to rise from $13 per barrel to $40 per barrel within a very short time frame. Oil is the key as you pointed out. This investor will just stick to his squiggly lines and play the inevitable rolls which are sure to be produced by volatile conditions as we have today.

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (17336)	12/20/2000 12:31:29 PM
From: brk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

Ah.....so you're saying that should continue to hold my RIMM short position? LOL!

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (17336)	12/20/2000 3:55:53 PM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

The problem with this thought is that reality is a short term concept. Today's reality is very different from tomorrow's. Markets DO tend toward "equilibrium", that is true, but while there is a single point of equilibrium at any single point in time, you suffer from 2 separate points that are constantly in motion. The speed, and the direction, of that point are things that are never stable. It's something like the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle...you can know the speed or position of the quantum unit at any point in time, but you can't know both. As such, when the NAZ was at 5000, you could have 10 reasons why it belonged there, and they were all good reasons. They may not have always made alot of sense, but they were good reasons. The same is true of NAZ 500. All the reasons to be there will be good, not make alot of sense, but be good nonetheless. Investor psychology is fragile, misinformed (at the best of times, ill informed at the worst), and ego-driven. Good luck to all-as JP Morgan said about the market - "it will fluctuate".

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (17336)	12/21/2000 2:13:49 AM
From: fubsy cooter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

Actually, AG is more responsible than you give him credit for. When he increased liquidity for Y2K it allowed the market to be flooded with speculative money in the first place, then when he reduced liquidity this year, the money began siphoning out of the market. Now, with the markets and economy in trouble, he chooses to make us wait through what will certainly be a hideous earnings season. I do agree that reality wins in the end, but the bubble blew up, for a large part due to Greenspan's recent policies. Sincerely, fubsy

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (17336)	12/21/2000 9:37:28 AM
From: Thotdoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19374

WS, thanks for the wisdom. I'll add my $.02. When adults meet reality face to face, the result creates: • a loss of money, and/or • humiliation, and/or • abandonment/betrayal. As I was taught by my main mentor, "you always get what you deserve." We are getting what we deserve in spades, and I don't think that the end is even remotely in sight. I'm constantly amazed at the bounces that the Naz keeps taking. How many times will fools rush in to get fleeced. And it's not just retail. I watch Thomson Iwatch and see major purchases without any real evidence of capitulation. On a more personal note. One reason I am in the market personallly, as opposed to letting a professional handle it is that I am trying to understand how it works, and how I work. So far, this particular market has taught me that no matter what I say in bravado, I'm more sensitive to fear than greed. That is a valuable lesson. Every where I see investors vacilating between fear and greed and thus not selling when they should, when they have made a significant profit and riding stocks down. Well, best to all for a happy holiday season. What goes down also goes up, G.