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Pastimes : G&K Investing for Curmudgeons -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (9800)	12/20/2000 7:30:50 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 22706

to my lurking friends, do not be mislead by the tv pundits re the internet. yes the dotcom companies are in trouble. they should be. the nasdaq is being crushed by their weight, but it is almost over. there were 2 companies funded by ipo to sell perfume over the internet...does any woman buy her perfume without a sniff test? amazon is another failure imo. americans like to hold books and look them over before buying. did you ever count the number of stores selling books at a regional mall? amazon's diversification attempts were a clear signal that the original business plans were not working. many believe the internet is a retail shopping mecca...it is not. investors, retail companies and their support system such as ad companies tried an experiment...it did not work for most. it may get better in the future in a different form. but many or most of these current companies will not make it. the wash out is going to be completed quickly imo. that is the bad news. fortunately that is not what the internet is really all about. the internet is about connecting the great corporations in the world to each other for rapid efficient business deals. the world's largest companies are grouping together to form internet business consortiums. large supply transactions are beginning to be done via the net saving time and money as well as reducing inventory carrying levels. it is only a matter of time before the smaller companies do the same. the cost savings and increased efficiencies are too great to ignore. the net is about connecting your grocery store to suppliers, your drug store to doctors, your doctor to your insurance company. it connects students to university libraries, army units to supply channels. it connects government agencies to each other, to you and to outside suppliers. the net enables remote access and management control of some serious business ventures like oil wells.. the net even connects your favorite stores and restaurants to your bank account. the internet is not just a mail service...e-mail is merely most folks' introduction to the system. most folks still do not know how to e-mail...how are they ever going to shop on-line? and don't think it is the uneducated...i know 6 doctors in one office in NC who just signed up for some basic computer familiarization courses. fortunately the internet is much more than e-mail...by using computers to rapidly compile data and the internet to move this information, the net offers unprecedented management control opportunities and cost savings. the world's great corporations and govts know this and continue to embrace the net, fueling the expansion. yes, some internet dotcom companies are dead or dying fast. fortunately we do not invest in them. the internet, so far, has but a small toe hold on the available information in the world. the term interconnectivity is alive and well. only a small fraction of the world's electrical devices are connected. that is going to change to all devices being connected. yes, i mean everything that plugs into a wall outlet and many battery operated devices as well. the expansion of the internet is going to continue at a rapid pace for many many years. the expansion will continue as long as cost savings and/or convenience can be realized. ok, so where is the expansion headed... i believe the corporate competition issues will continue to drive net expansion across every facet of business life. most american businesses are still not fully computerized. most are still not easily accessible via the net. who can afford to be left behind and survive? the next wave of consumer direct connectivity is going to be via handhelds and interactive tv imo. a wave of consumer device local connectivity is going to occur via bluetooth. has anyone thought about all of the copper blue tooth is going to save? another wave will come via echelon's devices. with both sunw, hon and csco's continued backing, i remain convinced echelon will be the household device connectivity standard. thinking about copper brings to mind another issue...the environment. the internet may become the greatest thing that ever happened to the environment. the need for corporate travel will be reduced. that will save airports tons of burger king trash. seriously, connectivity offers substantial energy savings in dozens of ways. building hvac control systems now offer centralized individual room control. they can even be managed off-site. similar systems will be moving into our homes. with a few clicks of your cell phone, you will be able to turn the air conditioner on at home 30 minutes before you arrive or off when you leave. do not underestimate energy for investment potential especially energy saving devices. america has been spoiled by cheap energy. the appetite for energy is continuing to increase as are energy prices. it is increasingly clear that managing our energy needs with more production is just not efficient enough. we must also conserve and i don't mean turn off the lights. an example i like to use is my own house... this time of year in south florida, my refrigerator, h2o heater, lights and stove create heat that i do not want in my house . my air conditioner heat pump dumps that heat outside. my pool heat pump creates cool air and dumps it outside. my clothes dryer creates heat and dumps it outside. see the waste? it goes on and on. the internet allows unprecedented control of energy using devices. that is not enough. not nearly enough. we also need new electrical system devices to ensure an uninterruptible electrical supply with substantial improvements in efficiency. there are several companies that are smack in the middle of this whole issue of energy supply and cost management. three that i really like are cree, irf and img. the ongoing energy problems in california coupled with energy price increases are going to drive this train fast. the expansion and modernization, with concurrent increases in energy demand and consumption, of third world countries and eastern europe will drive it even faster. imo the most promising areas for future capital growth are companies involved with internet and interconnectivity infrastructure expansion (this includes wireless (bluetooth, cell, satellite) and those improving energy efficiency and reliability. i am moving my portfolio in that direction. fiber optic networks are very expensive to build out, but the build out will continue.if avnx really holds the key to greatly increasing the capacity of current fiber optic systems, it will be deployed everywhere. interactive digital tv should not be ignored. gmst enables the consumer to effectively manage what continues to be his single greatest information resource...tv. with interactive tv, gmst may become a vital key to consumer internet accessability. after all everyone is tv literate. the internet is alive and well. the expansion will continue to accelerate. the savings are just too great to ignore. if you are wondering why big blue remains so strong when all of the boxmakers have crashed, you only need to look at the net. big blue makes more money from the internet than the top 25 internet companies combined. one of the most interesting things about the internet is that every company now has more data than ever to deal with and the continued growth of that data is staggering. don't forget all of that info has to be stored somewhere...that is ntap and emc's job. unclewest