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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (45160)	12/20/2000 2:20:37 PM
From: GVTucker	Respond to of 77400

Tunica, RE: You buy when nobody wants it, and sell it when everybody wants it". CSCO was a darling at $80. At $36 we must fall madly in love Wall Street analysts are a pretty good indicator of interest in a stock. CSCO was indeed a darling at $80. In fact, I have never seen a stock more consistently rated 'strong buy' before. The problem is that CSCO is still a darling, relatively. On a scale of 1 (bad) to 5 (good), CSCO is rated 4.612 by all the Wall St. analysts. The average of all US stocks is 4.285, the average of the Nasdaq 100 is 4.481. While CSCO was indeed a case of 'everybody wanting it' last spring, it is not anywhere close to the level of 'when nobody wants it'. So, using your logic, CSCO would have significant downside from here.

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (45160)	12/20/2000 3:02:55 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 77400

Tunicia - CSCO is a GROWTH stock. The reason to buy it is because someone will pay more for it when you sell it. PERIOD. Not because someone paid more for it in the past than you can buy it today. That's the kind of logic that enriches someone smarter than you. Sure, it's still growing. But at what price is the growth for the forseeable future ALREADY FACTORED IN??? $2? $20? $200? $2000? Figure it out. Maybe last month the forseeable future for growth stocks was 30 years. Maybe the risk of getting there was so low as to be a certainty. Maybe this month the horizon has shifted inwards to 5 years. Or fewer. That one teensy shift of bias would make a 5-fold impact on CSCO's stock price. Easy. What is the risk that its current price of $36 factors in a time period which includes the obsolescence of its dominant position? Screamin' buy? If that's how the future unfolds, then only as a collectors' item... It is all well and good to take the perspective of a farseeing knowitall. But if you see farther than the general public, you face a big risk that when the time comes for you to sell they won't be sharing your vision of the future. More to the point, you risk paying more than you otherwise could get it for. Now, I think CSCO is likely to over-correct to the downside and become a very good buy. Like just about every one of its high-tech bretheren. It may very well be selling now for less than it will be selling 5 years from now. But I'd rather miss $10 on the upside than enter right now. Why? Because it would be smarter to buy at this price from on the way up! The mania's not out of the market. I suspect there will be lots of nice bargains on sale for boxing day. Maybe even for valentines day - but that's looking a little too far into the future right now. John.