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To: Susan G who wrote (564)	12/20/2000 2:38:56 PM
From: bobby is sleepless in seattle	Respond to of 5732

Energy prices' outlook may matter more than rate cuts By Paul Erdman, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 2:47 PM ET Dec 19, 2000 NewsWatch Latest headlines Get Alerted SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- In our history, we have had many long periods of growing prosperity -- though none so extended as this one -- and inevitably, they all came to an end. Why? Basically for one of two reasons: 1) the Federal Reserve pushes short-term interest rates up and up in order to cool off the economy and curb inflation but, in the process, overshoots and, instead, inadvertently kills off the expansion. 2) or, we are blindsided by "external shocks" that pull the rug from under the economy. The jury is still out on the Fed. To be sure, it has now shifted to a bias, leaning against allowing a further slowdown. But could it be that this time around Alan Greenspan is behind the curve? If so, could it also be that unforeseen events in the energy sector, as marginal as they may seem in the greater scheme of things, may be just enough to tip the balance in favor of recession rather than just a slowdown? See full story. We are not talking about another oil shock, such as those that did us in back in 1973 and 1979. After spiking from $10 to $37 a barrel, crude oil now seems more likely to head back to $25 rather than rising further to $50 a barrel. Instead, we are being blindsided by a new form of energy crisis: a shortage of both natural gas and electricity that is sending their prices through the roof and beyond, and, in the process, exerting an increasingly negative influence on corporate profits and threatening to do the same where consumer spending is concerned. In the past 12 months, the price of natural gas has quadrupled. Electricity prices on the West Coast also are skyrocketing against the backdrop of a lessened generating capacity and the cost of the natural gas used to fuel a large number of power plants. One energy cost increase is feeding the other. Natural gas makes up 52 percent of energy used by American households, electricity 35 percent. It takes no computer scientist to figure out that as these costs eat deep holes into household budgets, steep cutbacks in other types of consumer spending could follow. Gas is also a major source of energy for a whole series of industries -- the chemical and fertilizer industries are especially exposed -- and since in this global economy American producers cannot pass along higher energy costs by raising prices, they will have to come out of profits. In the short run, what happens next to those prices could potentially be of much greater importance to our economy than by how much Greenspan lowers the Federal funds rate next year, or whether President Bush manages to push through an across-the-board tax cut. Changes in the direction of monetary and fiscal policy take many months to work their way through the system. What happens to the price of gas and electricity could make the difference between our heading toward a soft or hard landing during the first half of next year. That is why when President-elect Bush and Chairman Greenspan got together on Monday, much of their conversation was devoted to the subject of energy. Maybe they closed their meeting with a prayer for a warm winter.

To: Susan G who wrote (564)	12/21/2000 8:17:48 AM
From: Connor26	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5732

BEAS news - can anything hold it up??? Thursday December 21, 6:00 am Eastern Time BEA Wins Java Report's 2000 Writer's Choice Award for Best Java Application Server Award is Ninth in the Past Year for BEA WebLogic Application Servers SAN JOSE, Calif., Dec. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- BEA Systems, Inc. (Nasdaq: BEAS - news), one of the world's leading e-business infrastructure software companies, today announced that Java Report has honored BEA WebLogic® Enterprise with its Annual Writer's Choice Award for Best Java Application Server. In the words of product review editor John Waters, BEA WebLogic Enterprise was ``one of the few hands-down winners in any category'' in the balloting. This first-place finish marks the ninth best-in-class award won by BEA WebLogic application servers in the past 12 months, keeping BEA WebLogic well ahead of the pack as the most award-winning family of application servers in the industry.