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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (40971)	12/20/2000 5:07:32 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, You are right, that would be much too simple of a strategy, so I stand corrected on that. Some of these professional money managers and analysts must be worth listening too. But clearly one should be wary of the consensus expert advice. Rukeyser once presented a study on market bottoms and tops and concluded that most experts tend to have it wrong at each point, he went back about 40 years with this study. This makes sense of course, for if everyone is bearish all the money would tend to be on the sidelines, ready to re-enter the market. But of course some of these guys are worth listening to (if you know which ones, let me know). The flip side to all of this is that if you buy the right stuff on the cheap when the market is selling in a panic, then you can do extremely well over time. The emotional side of all this is really a big part I think. When it comes to investing, it seems that our emotions are just a handicap. I have done well buying past tech dips, but I always try to listen to the bear arguments, for they are bound to be right once in a while. Those few bears back in March were certainly right. Maybe even now the bears are right, but I think not. My big concern is the long term picture. I don't mind if I don't catch the bottom, but waiting 5 or more years before the Nasdaq hits 5,000 would not be a lot of fun for me. Since AMAT is a well run company that will tend to do well if the overall tech sector is healthy, a lot of our analysis needs to be on the overall tech sector and economy. My biggest concern is being too bullish, so I am trying to seek out the bear arguments at this time. Some are comparing now to the nasty selloff in 73/74. For a bullish rebuttal on this view, refer to Michael's post number 40960: Message 15055316 Here is a link for some more positive thoughts: "Roaring 2000s - killed by recession? New economy's 'ultra prosperity' in danger" cbs.marketwatch.com Regards, John