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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (82211)	12/20/2000 4:32:27 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Options Indicators Say Capitulation, Bottom, Are Still to Come thestreet.com ------------------------------------- I have a problem with buying tech here even given these prices: 1) Still no capitulation. I have no idea what a 10-20% down day looks like. Don't want to be long any tech even as traders with that possibility still out there. 2) Reg-FD. How many companies are scrambling to make this quarter still? Analysts have been kept out of the loop. They have to guess at the damage. I'm guessing a number of companies are looking at the market and saying well it really doesn't matter if we warn since our stock is already down 80%. A number of companies will guide estimates down further when they report - and they have a better handle on the slowing economy. 3) Many of the techs that are still strong have yet to warn, but they will imho. Just a matter of time. If not this quarter then next quarter. 4) Another round of margin calls coming soon. 5) Dow to break 10,000? What happens if the Nasdaq breaks 2000? What happens to sentiment? 6) Valuation are returning to normal historic levels in some cases, but I still wouldn't call the valuations historically cheap. There are still pockets on mania (B2B, optics, selective Networking stocks, and "nifty fifty" Dow stocks.) Don't get me wrong I think you day trade or make a few ST trades in tech land at some of these prices. I just don't sleep very well doing so. No need to catch the absolute bottom. If I do try to scalp a few trades it'll be with small amount of capital (say 10-20% of my portfolio and then only the best of best in tech land). CSCO at 35 1/2 almost tempted me today for a trade.