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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: M. Frank Greiffenstein who wrote (640)	12/20/2000 4:15:50 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

When Nixon resigned on 8/8/74 I was selling my puts which had already appreciated adequately. Then the market proceeded downward very much like it has over the last several months. During that period I thought it was wrong to try to short. You don't short when the cat is out of the bag. You remain in cash. The key to the reversal then was a five count advance off the bottom. What got that going in '74 was that loan demand finally peaked. We have an entirely different configuration now. You can see the reversal with its structure in the DOW chart from 1974. What is telltale is that to the right of the structure there is a transition regime where a small sideways action puts in a tiny base which cuts the major down trend. The downside Elliot Wave count becomes compressed so that it isn't visible. This indicates a downside exhaustion of selling. The ensuing advance which was quite dynamic was driven by FED pumping. We had a similar structure developing up to several days ago. Last Friday the inside word went out that FED wouldn't get aggressive and so the institutions started selling the leveraged paper. I am sending you a .gif of the period. You can see the similarities but so far the selling has exceeded the previous bottom, and so if there is valid parallel, it will have to start from below.