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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (8804)	12/21/2000 6:39:38 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Respond to of 11051

DJ> CSCO PUTs - nice trade, Dude! ;-)

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (8804)	12/22/2000 3:29:48 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 11051

DJ, A Merry FA Ho Ho HO to all the dudes! I'm convinced in my TA adventures that one needs to recognize that, at any given point in time, one faces two pivot points. A point above and a point below. I will equally stress that I have not yet developed the discipline to enforce this concept; but will try until I get it down! From an FA perspective, I have spent enough effort for a degree in subject, and will match my knowledge with anyone. I'm convinced that it is equally as simple - buy that which is selling below the projected growth rate and reap the rewards. Still have not got the discipline down on this issue either, but I'm sure it will come. At the end of last year, of the 63 Big Boyz at that time, only 5 were selling at a PE level below the projected growth. One was eliminated due to the PE being artificially suppressed by the sell of a major operating unit (DD). There were four that remained: ALL, FTU, MO, and S. If one had invested equal sums in these four last 12/31, one would have realized 33%, with only one of the four under water. This would have compared favorably with the negative 13% of the SnP YTD. Well. the market has met its maker, and opportunities in this regard abound. Of the 77 Big Boyz, 15 are negative for three stock price performance at 11/30, and four turned negative for five year performance. Nothing has occurred since 11/30 to lead to any improvement in these figures. At current prices, 17 of the Big Boyz now make the list. That is, their projected growth rate is greater than the current PE. One, ORCL, is eliminated due to its PE being unreasonably affected by the sale of assets. The remaining 16 are: GTW, WCOM, AMAT, S, GM, F, EK, DELL, CPQ, BAC, TYC, MO, MWD, CMB, T, AND FON. The order is important, but that would be the subject of another post. The point is that a great opportunity is upon us; now let's us use TA to guide the way. Just a View from the Swamp TB