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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (38701)	12/20/2000 4:32:00 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

How do you measure a panic bottom in techs, when the traditional measures (VIX, PC ratio) are targeted at the S&Ps? I also think people looking for a panic bottom in this market could miss the bottom when it does occur. This has been a slow, grinding, old-fashioned bear market, not a panic like '87 or '98. Even '90 was a short, sharp sell-off, with a high in August and a low in October, if I recall correctly. A better measure might be '81-'82; what were the indicators like in August '82? S&P lost 24% in that bear, I think, so even that might not be a fair measure. The bottom line is we closed on a line with the last two major Nasdaq sell-offs, 1994 and 1998. A good bet for a rally, with a retest in January, IMHO.