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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64806)	12/20/2000 7:08:59 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

George oil or energy prices are acting like an additional tax, as it taxes every one. I am not familiar with the demand supply situation but since January this year there was a lot of crude hoarding by big commercials and many speculators joined in. My theory is that this was part of a planed effort to bring Bush to power and teach the Clinton administration a lesson about having strict environmental laws to refineries and oil producing entities. (have you noticed that his first program has to do with energy??? ... and oil service companies stocks are shooting upwards?) As to the weakness it was also induced by high oil prices especially in Europe. Therefore a 36% to 40% relief in energy prices there will improve economic activity and as a result stock prices. Same will apply to Asia. Longer term I would agree that oil will be a problem if other solution will not be found. At present relative high interest rates there will be easy for the FED to jumpstart the economy. My take is that AG is to chicken and to political. He should have tighten earlier and loosen up in November. As to the stock market he should ordered higher margin requirements a year ago as part of the Y2K problem and not let GS and their cohorts to generate the stock market bubble with the liquidity the FED provided. I think that 10%to 15% lower energy prices result in about 0.5% lower inflation from current levels, which will warrant at least 0.5% interest cut. BWDIK Haim Haim