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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeff_boyd___ who wrote (23081)	12/20/2000 7:17:54 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

jeff: Pricing is a function of two primary determinants in the long run: demand and comparative pricing. At the moment, overall PC demand is waning for whatever reasons (reduced discretionary spending, fed interest rate firmness and energy prices above $25 would seem to be very powerful causes,imho, particularly the reduced discretionary demand falling out of paper/real wealth losses associated with the drop in the Nas from 5500 to 2500)...These are forces that are real but exogenous with respect to the PC marketplace. Exogenous forces do wax and wane by their very nature over time...At the moment the cumulative effect of these exogenous forces is completely masking,imho, the relative positive AMD strides that have taken place over the past 12 months vis a vis its competitors, not to mention the very significant change that has occurred in AMD's financial statements and financial ratios in this same period. I know of no other company whose fortunes, with respect to both product lineup and financial ratios, have changed so dramatically in the positive direction over the past 12 month interval...Yes, yes yes, I, for one, thought AMD would never drop below $40 as recent as July 2000...$30 was remotely possibnle but unlikely...$20 would just never happen...$14??? Well I'm just glad nobody offered odds on that occurrence because they were 0 from my perspective... Now that AMD is at $14, do I see any fundamental AMD weakness that has surfaced since July to explain $14??? Absolutely not...All I see are the cumulative effects of those exogenous factors noted above and the resulting "bandwagon effect" as evidenced by commentaries of some on this thread that the apocalypse is looming...In fact what I see, in a relative sense, is an AMD that continues to move forward with respect to its competitors...Based upon AMD guidance, I fully expect to see DDR, mobiles and palomino in Q1 and servers, well who knows when...If DDR/Athys, mobiles and palominos do appear in Q1, once again I will claim that in a relative sense, AMD is continuing in its recent trend of moving forward...The exogenous factors which are waning at the moment will once again wax and when they do, should AMD continue improving its relative strength vis a vis its competitors, I wouldn't want to miss the ride...It may just dwarf that ride which occurred between November and July this past year... Once again, microprocessor pricing in the long run is a function of demand and comparative pricing. At the moment, AMD's comaprative pricing places AMD in a very strong position, but even so, weak demand may exert downward pressure on pricing although to a lesser extent than its competitors whose comaprative pricing is already ridiculously expensive by comparison...To blame pricing weakness on either AMD or INTC is to miss the mark entirely, imho, as overall demand is the single most important determinant and overall demand, for the time being, owing to exogenous factors above, is weak...I only hope I can shake some money free to add significantly to my current AMD holdings while AMD remains below $15...AMD's current flash and microprocessor product lineups are second to none as far as I can ascertain and in a relative sense are distancing their lead over competitors with each new product introduction...It is for this reason that it is my contention that AMD will be a market leader once the existing exogenous factors are neutralized...